The Weekly Marmot - Is LFR Dropping Enough Loot?

[Krenian]

...are we done arguing semantics? Seriously?

Drop it and get back to the topic. Now.

[Theotherone]

In any event, concerning the original quesiton, no I don't think LFR's drop rate is too low, if you look at the whole gearing package, which includes valor point items. For the first time in my memory you can buy a full set, sans weapon and one trinket from VP and those missing items can be crafted (we'll not purple for the weapon except for the inscription pieces) so taken as a whole, gearing appears to be fairly well balanced.

[Toypop]

Of course with no progression goals aside from achieving the ilevel required to get into T15 RF, the purpose of gear in RF is surely to appeal to the desires of players for shiny stuff and keep them using the content. Investment dollars in raiding have to be paid back by subscriber retention and Blizzard want to see lots of players running that content each week to justify the development budget.

Remember we are not talking about HC raiders who will do things they dislike or having the time to do everything.

The point about VP gear being factored into the gearing rate is an interesting one. Of course the original question is whether RF drops enough loot and not whether a player can acquire loot by performing all manner of other tasks to supplement those drops. It is still an interesting point though because VP from doing Dailies actually acts as a rival to RF especially with RF being a poor source of VP/hour.

Lore's question asked if it dropped "enough" loot. Well "enough" for me means that it provides an adequate carrot to keep those players using the content each week. Are enough of them using the content? I guess that comes down to Blizzards raid budget and the amount of usage they expect the content to have in comparison to the budget.

Now these days I reside in a social guild. The players in my guild are exactly the type of players you would expect to be running RF. I was thinking about this last night when I saw a group of them forming up to do some dailies and it occurred to me that there are only one or two of us (both ex-HC raiders) that I see regularly running RF. The rest don't bother! We are talking about players that used to raid Kara, Naxx 10 and ICC10, dabbled a bit in 4.3 DS but simply don't bother any more and acquire VP upgrades instead from doing dailies.

I wonder why?

Could it be that the loot carrot on the stick keeps being pulled away from their mouths too often in RF? Has the rate of reward failed to get them addicted? With limited time on their hands do they prefer to spend it on dailies?

Or is it that many preferred the social side of easy 10 man raids and find no enjoyment in the impersonal mayhem of 25 man RF?

Maybe they never ever wanted to do raids in the first place and now they have alternative sources of gear they have dropped it like a brick?

I suspect a combination. I know I personally will not renew my subs at the end of December as I likely have the ilevel needed to get into T15 RF and as much as I'd like the loot I still miss from RF (I have no socket weapon and no two-set bonus), it simply doesn't feel worth it to me.

I no longer "need" gear as I did in my HC raiding days. I simply "want it". With the current RF system I "don't want it THAT much". So I will cancel until 5.2 hits. That won't bother anyone reading this forum but Blizzards accountants might get worried if a lot of people have the same idea. Same applies to the raid development team when they try to get approval for their next budget...

Then again the numbers running RF on a regular basis may still be very healthy and within expectations. That may continue all the way up until 5.2 comes along. I'd love to see one of Blizzards internal graphics showing the usage over time and comparing the usage numbers and the decay over time to 4.3 RF and previous raids like Naxx.

[Tengenstein]

[Banzhe]

I understand RNG, you don't appear to have grasped what Lore, I and other posters have tried to explain about "win chance". Do you understand the difference and why one improves over time in fixed roster groups? Perhaps if you had watched all of Lores video...

"win chance" / drop chance, it's the exact same thing when you want to tie it into a random vs fixed roster and ultimately claim, that in the fixed roster your chance goes up per week / month, it no more goes up then it does in a group determined by the RF tool.
By my own example my win chance on the FL staff should be 100% at the time, but in reality it turned out to be 0%.., I know that isn't quite fitting into the picture you're all trying to paint of the current system, but do you honestly think that because 5 players in a fixed group have won an item you'd want, that means you're chance of getting it suddenly spikes to 100% if you're the final Str, Agi, Int user?
IF it was to drop then yes, but since you always have a 50/50 shot in RF I don't see the overall issue, it all ties into RnG which you're trying to bypass by hoping for a drop buff.

This episode is based on semantics and best / worst case scenario, so that the RF system appears more flawed then it is, fact still is that you can raid 24/7 normal or heroic, and have the exact same chance of gaining the item you want, as you would in the current RF system.
Oh derp, but the numbers say different- Congratulations, so do numbers in parses and sims and every other type of theoretical numbers.., one thing is trying to math out X while holding it up against reality.

Do I personally think the RF system is perfect?- no, not even close (though a million times better then before), my personal belief is that the entire feature should be taken out to promote the mmo section, instead on continuously building on more solo play, but that's an entirely different topic.

...are we done arguing semantics? Seriously?

Drop it and get back to the topic. Now.

Is LFR dropping enough loot- how are we not on topic Krenian?

[sifuedition]

Assume:
Your fixed raid has two agility users
The other agility user already has the item
**LFR and Normal/Heroic have the same internal % chance to select that piece of loot to "drop"

Fixed raid:
Say a 2% chance to drop
IF it drops, 100% to receive
Your chance of getting it on any given week after the first guy received it = 2%

LFR
You have a 15% chance of receiving loot at all
2% "drop" rate, the chance that the rare item is the one chosen to put in your bags
0.15 x 0.02 = 0.3% chance of getting the item and it NEVER changes.

Both formats have a 2% "drop" chance on the item. Fixed raid group has a better "win" chance.

Obviously, there are assumptions here that can be wrong, with probably the most important one being the starred one. I've never seen any data to contradict these assumptions, however, so this is how I've assumed it works. Given my resto druid ran a T13 heroic 27 times to even see his first off-hand drop, I have no problem with the way any of my assumptions look. Seems to me, the difference between the two sides of this conversation are in the assumptions which neither of us knows absolutely.