Mastery, Hit and Expertise Analysis (Prot Warrior)

[Tengenstein]

Go for it. I'm waiting on simcraft to start up their MoP warrior module and then play around with them making it work properly again. I don't trust myself with derivatives. I CBA to work out the diminishing returns on avoidance (or anything else for that matter)

[kebess]

In order to make sense of the following calculations, I’ll be using these hypothetical stats (instead of x, y, z... variables) :

Tank’s max HP = 450K

Tank’s Stamina = 21.5K
(amount needed to reach 450K HP when fully buffed)

Block chance = 30%
(including 6.36% block chance from the 28% Mastery)

Total Avoidance = 25%
Boss swing time = 2 sec

Average damage per swing = 40% of Tank’s max HP = 180K
(after damage reduction from Armour, Weakened blows and Defensive stance. This amount is based on what we’ve seen so far in past HC content. I’ll detail it if necessary)


With 28% Mastery, while SB is active as previously calculated, 75% of attacks are blocks, and 28% of those are Critical Blocks = > 21% of attacks are critical blocks. This occurs 60% of the time, with a 60% SB uptime.

Without SB 75% of attacks CAN be blocked, and only 30% of those ARE blocked => 22.5% of attacks are blocked, and with 28% CB, only 6.30% of those are Critical blocks. This occurs 40% the time.

== > (60% of 21) + (40% of 6.3) = 15.12% == > so with 28% Mastery, 15.12% of all attacks are critical blocks.

This means, in 6 sec (or 3 boss swings), 0.454 attacks are critically blocked
== > 1 critically blocked attack = 180K * 0.6 = 108K damage reduction

== > so in 6 sec, 108K * 0.454 = 49.03K damage is reduced on average with 28% Mastery, solely through critical blocks.



Now, 28% Mastery also, provides 6.36% block chance (4.40% Mastery = 1.00% block), which was already included in the hypothetical 30% block chance.
6.36% block chance represents 26.90% of the overall damage reduction we will be getting from that total 30% block chance, WITHOUT Shield Block. (23.64 + 6.36 = 30 == > 6.36 = 26.90% of 23.64)

Let’s calculate how much damage reduction that represents.

Without SB and with 30% block chance, only 22.50% of attacks are blocked (because of block being on a 2nd roll)
A part of those blocks will turn out to be critical blocks as we saw earlier (28%), but since we calculated the damage reduction of critical blocks separately, we can't include them here == > 28% of 22.5 = 6.3% critical blocks == > 22.5% - 6.3% = 16.2% normal blocks.

Also, we only want the damage reduction during 40% of that time, since SB is active during the remaining 60%.

== > 40% of 16.2% = 6.48% == > so with 30% block chance and outside of SB uptime, 6.48% of all attacks are normally blocked.

This means, in 6 sec (or 3 boss swings), 0.1944 attacks are blocked on average.
== > 1 blocked attack = 180K * 0.3 = 54K damage reduction

== > In 6 sec, 54K * 0.1944 = 10.50K damage is reduced on average with 30% block chance, solely through normal blocks, AND outside of SB uptime.

== > 26.90% of 10.50 = 2.82, and so 2.82K = the damage reduction from 28% Mastery, solely through block chance.


=========== >>>>>> 2.82K + 49.03K = 51.85K damage reduction from 28% Mastery, in 6 sec.

== == >>> 8.64K DrPS with 28% Mastery, through blocks and critical blocks.
This will vary a little, according to your hypothetical stats of course.


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Now, how much Rage would I need to produce this same amount of DrPS, through Shield Barrier ?
SBar and not SBlock because I’m assuming any extra Rage, that isn’t used for SBlock, would be dumped into Shield barrier, since we would be able to keep Sblock up relatively close to the max uptime, if not exactly at the max uptime.
In any case, Rage shouldn’t be an issue in doing so, since all that is needed is 6.67 RPS, to maintain a 66.67% uptime.
I’m not gonna go into details on this part, but once you add Charge and Shouts in the equation, it’s easily surpassed.

So how much Rage is needed for Shield barrier to produce a 8.64K DrPS ?

In the current build, Shield Barrier absorption shield increases with Stamina and AP. However, I’m not sure about what happened to the Attack power modifier, but it seems AP doesn’t increase the absorption amount in any significant way, only Stamina does.
(EDIT: check the post below for more details)

In the current build thus, in most cases, 1 Stam == > (2.5/3) = 0.83 Absorption point, for a 20 Rage Shield barrier.

== > 21.5K Stam (amount needed for 450K HP) = 17.92K Absorption Shield, for a 20 Rage Barrier == >> 1K Absorption require 1.12 Rage.

We need on average a 8.64K Absorption Shield every second, in order to have a 8.64K DrPS.
=== >> 8.64K * 1.12 Rage === >> 9.68 Rage is needed every second to generate a 8.64K DrPS shield.

==== ====>>>>>> 9.68 RPS is the Rage per second difference we need between the RPS of 28% Mastery and 22.5% of SS, Rev and Dev RPS, in order to equate the extra survivability we get from 28% Mastery through blocks and Crit blocks.

I was sure expecting a high number, but this is a bit ridiculous.

We shouldn’t forget that this is a pure mathematical and statistic POV, and that in practice, as I tried pointing out in the video, Hit&Exp play a much more important role than what those numbers are actually saying.


Let me know if I missed anything.

[Tengenstein]

SBar value will be the bigger of either (2.5*stam/3) or (AP * AP) * 186) / 10,000,000 + (47000% of AP / 100,00), against any boss where we can attain max vengeance it will be the AP based scaling.

[kebess]

(AP * AP) * 186) / 10,000,000 + (47000% of AP / 100,00)

How are they coming up with those numbers ?

Anyways, I tried stacking Vengeance too, and got up to some 50K total AP, with 19K Stam, but the Stam modifier simply kept taking over.

[Tengenstein]

went to MMO, read the data mining, put formula into excell, took numbers from charactersheet/tooltips was consistant with those formulas.

Any word on the logs for boss swing times?

[kebess]

Sadly no. That last post took me more time than expected.
I initially tried converting 1 Rage point into a ''survivability stat'' regardless of whether you're using Shield Block or Shield Barrier, but that just threw me on some pointless and messy road...
I'll get in game and record some data, as soon as possible. If you beat me to it, and get some conclusive data, I'm OK with it.

[kebess]

I missed a little detail while calculating the damage reduction of 6.36% block chance.

As stated above, with 30% block chance, only 22.5% of attacks are actually blocked.
However, some of those blocks will turn out to be critical blocks, in fact as calculated earlier, exactly 28% of them will be critical blocks.
But I can't include that part in here, since I calculated the damage reduction of critical blocks separately.

So, 28% of 22.5 = 6.3%, which is the amount of attacks that will turn out to be critical blocks.
=> 22.5 - 6.3 = 16.2 ==> So only 16.2% of attacks are normally blocked.

I've made the change in th OP.

[Kavaren]

Pretty sure boss swing time is 2 sec in MoP.

[Tengenstein]

/run local sp=UnitAttackSpeed("target"); SendChatMessage(GetUnitName("target").."'s current attack speed: "..(("%%.%df"):format(2)):format(sp), "SAY");


is returning 2.0 for all the 5 man dungeon bosses i've used it on so far, as well as the skull level world boss "Sha of anger"

[kebess]

It seems you're right. At least, heroic dungeon bosses seem to have a 2 sec swing, but many trashes have between 1.5 sec and 1.8 sec swing.
I didn't use this script the first time, so I guess I missed something somewhere, and confused bosses logs with trashes.

Anyways, I just updated the post, but it really doesn't have any significant impact on that final RPS result, since it's so high.

[Tengenstein]

You don't seem to grasp the iterative nature of the class, with only 28% mastery and 25% avoidance, it is impossible to maintain the 6RPS necessary to keep SB up 60% of the time without threat stats; SB uptime is linked to stats. neither do you have 30% block at 28% mastery. The arbitrary nature of your variables is what's defeating your analysis

Furthermore you're comparison of mastery dumping with SB to threat stats dumping with SB and Sbar, is scientifically worthless, you're changing too many variables at the same time. for any proper experiment you want a control setting, a zero,a baseline, and then compare base line plus X, and then base line Plus Y, whilst keeping all other potential varaibles the same, and then compare.

I've updated the calculator its got a nice little damage reduction box at the bottom, put whatever numbers you want in at the top for ratings and it will spit out an average damage reduction at the bottom. as a general rule of thumb for maximising Damage reduction you want Mastery>expertise=hit>Parry>dodge, though YMMV.

[kebess]

as a general rule of thumb for maximising Damage reduction you want Mastery>expertise=hit>Parry>dodge, though YMMV.

Well, I don't see the point in arguing much further because, THAT is actually what I've been saying...
In the Video I preferred to Hit cap, before stacking Mastery, so that my Demoralizing shout, a pretty interesting defensive CD, doesn't miss anymore. But that bit is more of a comfort really.

And as I clearly stated in that video, you might want a slightly different approach, based on the fight and your personal way of playing the game.

So again, I think we should agree to agree, rather than to disagree ; )

You don't seem to grasp the iterative nature of the class, with only 28% mastery and 25% avoidance, it is impossible to maintain the 6RPS necessary to keep SB up 60% of the time without threat stats; SB uptime is linked to stats. neither do you have 30% block at 28% mastery. The arbitrary nature of your variables is what's defeating your analysis

Furthermore you're comparison of mastery dumping with SB to threat stats dumping with SB and Sbar, is scientifically worthless, you're changing too many variables at the same time. for any proper experiment you want a control setting, a zero,a baseline, and then compare base line plus X, and then base line Plus Y, whilst keeping all other potential varaibles the same, and then compare.

Here we clearly don't see things the same way, and I'm thinking of many examples and illustrations to furthermore reason that comparison I'm making.
I'll share them later on today, when I get a bit more time.

[Tengenstein]

I agree with your conclusion, I was never arguing against that. However I totally disagree with the reasoning that brought you there because quite frankly it's either wrong, poorly researched, or not actually possible to achieve within the game.

[kebess]

However I totally disagree with the reasoning that brought you there because quite frankly it's either wrong, poorly researched, or not actually possible to achieve within the game.

So you not agreeing with my reasoning and logic automatically makes me wrong ?

Then please share the reason and logic that brought you to this same conclusion I made in my analysis, and that we both agree on.

If everyone thought like that, and said you don't agree with me so you're wrong, it would be pointless to even try to have a discussion. Illustrate that conclusion we both think to be true, just like I did -- only then can we possible see where we truly disagree.

Otherwise saying I'm wrong is simply an unreasoned, and thus worthless, statement. Prove me wrong.


Furthermore

You don't seem to grasp the iterative nature of the class, with only 28% mastery and 25% avoidance, it is impossible to maintain the 6RPS necessary to keep SB up 60% of the time without threat stats; SB uptime is linked to stats. neither do you have 30% block at 28% mastery. The arbitrary nature of your variables is what's defeating your analysis

There is exactly where you don't seem understand my calculations. The hypothetical stats I took, have nothing ''random'' to them.

Though I thought it was clear enough, I'll gladly take the time to explain why 30% block for example, or 25% avoidance, and how do you get those stats, etc...
But first, I'll let you respond and explain your own logic, and how you would have approached things to get to our mutual conclusion.

[kopcap]

Have a look at his spreadsheet and Prot Warrior thread, everything is there.