The Weekly Marmot - Why the BMAH Worries Me

[Leucifer]

Damn, that's outrageous at this point in the expansion; I haven't seen those prices in months on either of my servers. I think most of people who are taking alts to 85 my server (it's pretty dead these days) aren't willing to spend that kind of gold to gear up a toon for a few months of raiding. I know my 85 horde DK on Shardris isn't going to be geared out until MoP; running the original Cata heroics just isn't something I want to do in quest greens and blues.

Goldwise I do what Agg does, make enough gold to feed my raiding habit on 9 toons and keep a cushion in my personal guild bank, for a rainey day.

Will the BMAH force the harcore progession raiders to spend a ton of gold for BiS equipment? Kind of like some guilds were requiring players to buy all epic gems at the top of the market? Kind of nasty side effect of the BMAH.

Lol. Note, I didn't say I was spending that much, or that anyone else might actually be. However, for whatever reason, the AH pricing hasn't seen a downward adjustment.

This leads me to......

I have on one of my servers, which is not in a healthly state horde side - which does raise the point that BMAH could have varying effects dependant server and possibly even faction.

And that's really part of the problem Theo. Each server is really it's own economy. What may work on one, could cause problems on another. Yes.... there has been some "international trade" going on with the gold-farmers and the stuff offered by the "true" black market, and I'd even contend that those have contributed to the inflation issue in some ways, but that does provide some sort of outlet/stability as.... the value in real money being assigned to something in the black market has an effect on what becomes the acceptable in-game price on something.

My home server happens to be a bit of a backwater planet..... the Tatooine of WoW. On a high pop, highly progressed server, things may be more reasonable.

You bring up a good point with this......

Will the BMAH force the harcore progession raiders to spend a ton of gold for BiS equipment? Kind of like some guilds were requiring players to buy all epic gems at the top of the market? Kind of nasty side effect of the BMAH.

The compulsion placed on hardcore progression raiders (on themselves) to do everything possible to maximize their potential performance could mean that this community will feel the effects of the BMAH the hardest.

Then again.... maybe that IS the target audience. A lot of those guilds acquired massive resources due to their raiding success, and as a side-effect, significant control over AH pricing (they set the prices for the BoE gear they put in, everyone adjusted to their pricing). If that's the case, I see the BMAH backfiring horribly, because in general, these groups will not want to give up what they have, and if they are spending to acquire an advantage.... they will likely pass the cost on to their "customers" in the AH.

[Knighterrant81]

Lore, just checking here, but I think you're jumping to conclusions a little with your economics.

The BMAH is meant to be a gold sink. It is not meant for everyone, it is meant for the top end gold makers, with multiple gold caps to their name. Blizzard doesn't care if they only get a few sales on there, just as long as they go for big $.

Because of that, it cannot be between players like the normal AH. As far as I can tell (and correct me if I'm wrong, please, I'm not in beta), but it appears that players may only bid for items. They cannot *post* items.

Therefore, items posted on the BMAH will not be subject to normal economic pressures. Trade Prince Gallywix does not *care* if no one buys his stuff, because he is an NPC and it is really Blizzard putting up pixels to 1) destroy as much gold as they can and 2) give auctioneers a reward for destroying their hard earned gold.

We will not see prices rising and falling due to market pressures (only indirectly, and only on the real AH, through the downward effect on inflation, which is the point of a gold sink), because Blizzard is outside of those (in-game) market pressures. The normal way a buyer puts pressure on a seller (not buying) has no effect on Blizzard (in-game) because it costs them nothing to create the items in the first place.

So, no 5,000-10,000 gold HM pieces.

I agree that HM gear or mounts should not be on the BMAH, but I am not worried that stuff will be excessively cheap due to supply and demand...because there won't BE supply and demand.

[Mashone]

After doing some reading I have come to a conclusion. That the people who are hording all this gold will not be buying any of this stuff off the BMAH, just look at them in game people who play because they enjoy playing the AH don't normally run raids hell most don't even run randoms, they might buy an item to mark it up for resale but i doubt they will equip it.. Most of the casuals whom don't play the AH or Raid competitively or even hard core farmers really don't get these huge piles of gold I would say these players wouldn't have the disposable income to buy this gear IMO all the BMAH will do is put another chore on the more competitive raiders, we all know if you want to be the best of the best you will do whatever it takes to get BiS items, even if you don't enjoy it and even if its very time consuming. Now the people who want the mounts just seems to me to be an issue of time spent one way or another if you want that mount you will farm it or buy it that won't change much. Of course this is just my opinion, i could be wrong.

[fengosa]

There was a blue post today saying (http://blue.mmo-champion.com/topic/2...to-go-too-far/)

"The chances that a tier-14 raid or PvP item of any given armor type will be listed each day is roughly 10%. Logistically, this means there will be plenty of days where no new armor is available to anyone. Some days, if the black market vendors are extra fortunate in their scavenging for goods, you might see a piece of gear for each armor type. The items under each armor type include belts, boots and bracers, and there will be a separate vendor offering jewelry."

So 1 item every 10 days. Then you have to consider whether or not it's suitable for your spec, but let's say there are 9 variations on all possible specs considering gear and stat type. It's now about once every 90 days. Then if it's a pve/pvp item, and you bid on it and win it that means roughly you get something once every 6 months. Then consider whether or not it's heroic or regular since regular items on the BMAH aren't really any different than boes from trash. We're now looking at once a year you might be able to win boots, belt or bracers. Maybe.

Here's another piece from the blue post

"You're glossing over far too many details for this to be a valid argument."

[Knighterrant81]

"You're glossing over far too many details for this to be a valid argument."

The problem isn't with the amount of availability. Having the drop chance be less (even extremely rare) doesn't make it less of a problem. The problem is that it is there at all, and it shouldn't be.

[Tengenstein]

There was a blue post today saying (http://blue.mmo-champion.com/topic/2...to-go-too-far/)

"The chances that a tier-14 raid or PvP item of any given armor type will be listed each day is roughly 10%. Logistically, this means there will be plenty of days where no new armor is available to anyone. Some days, if the black market vendors are extra fortunate in their scavenging for goods, you might see a piece of gear for each armor type. The items under each armor type include belts, boots and bracers, and there will be a separate vendor offering jewelry."

So 1 item every 10 days. Then you have to consider whether or not it's suitable for your spec, but let's say there are 9 variations on all possible specs considering gear and stat type. It's now about once every 90 days. Then if it's a pve/pvp item, and you bid on it and win it that means roughly you get something once every 6 months. Then consider whether or not it's heroic or regular since regular items on the BMAH aren't really any different than boes from trash. We're now looking at once a year you might be able to win boots, belt or bracers. Maybe.

Here's another piece from the blue post

"You're glossing over far too many details for this to be a valid argument."

and the chance of it dropping from a particular raid boss is....well something like gurthalak is 10% per week

Wait a second.....no Vault of Archavon, No Baradin Hold.....the BMAH is in a PVP zone......THE BMAH is the Pandaren PVP raid!

[Dagz]

@Tawnos, both good points - which does highlight the major effect of BMAH will be that of the way its percieved (and if that influnces player numbers/choices), our issues with it differ but can both be seen as valid.

There maybe issues with economic factors on some realms, probably with Goldsellers and there maybe be the issue of hardcore raiders feeling forced to purchase upgrades. A lot of this is speculation until it hits and we see exactly how it is handled.

[tunaktunak-kazzak]

I find BMAH to be much much better option then this:

Tier 11:

• Heroic: Sinestra - 50€
  
• Heroic: Al'akir - 30€
  
• Heroic: Nefarian - 35€
  
• Whole Tier11 clear - 100€
  
• Glory of the Cataclysm Raider - 150€

Tier 12:

• Heroic: Ragnaros (mount run) - 80€
  
• Heroic: Ragnaros (title run) - 25€ [HORDE ONLY]
  
• Glory of the Firelands Raider - 120€

Tier 13 [HORDE ONLY]:

• Heroic: Madness of Deathwing (mount run) - 300€

[Megashock]

Prestige is a terrible argument against the BMAH when you simply compare it to heroic sales runs. Essentially guilds are selling off the prestige that would come from raiding while the buyers die in the first 5 seconds, dont learn any mechanics, and then move on to app to other progression guilds with an over inflated resume possibly being chosen over someone who cleared the content legit. By Comparison i think that is far more detrimental to the raiding community than a few people buying boots half way through the tier.

Now, as for mounts i see no problem at all with them being there. Take for example the Black protodrake from the naxx meta, right now its fairly rare, if it makes it into the BMAH it will still remain pretty rare. So if blizzard wants to put these models back into the game in some fashion putting them on the BMAH keeps their prestige for the most part as opposed to putting them back where the mounts originally came from just to be farmed every week by everyone. The same goes for T3 pieces.

[Tengenstein]

what are the arguments FOR the BMAH?

[Lrot]

what are the arguments FOR the BMAH?

I still maintain that the BMAH is essentially a trap baited in such a way as to catch gold buyers. It's a very safe bet that Blizz will be closely inspecting the game saves of anybody who wins any items from the BMAH to see if there are any suspect gold acquisitions in their recent past.

Not necessarily an argument in favour of the BMAH, but certainly a good use for it.

[Dagz]

what are the arguments FOR the BMAH?

As the guys have said, reintroduction of items removed from the game and possibly a clumsy attempt at a gold sink. I like the idea of a black market with elusive items appearing, its characterful - but it could be a great source of new novelty items/transmog gear and maybe even an alternative means to acquire online store items. Beyond that I am not sure

[Megashock]

what are the arguments FOR the BMAH?

Its really going to serve multiple purposes:

1. Its a carrot on a stick. Blizz has said that they want to put more emphasis on daily quests and are even going as far as to remove the daily quest cap. This will entice people to continue to do daily quests for current content long after they get the rep rewards and all that goes along with those. It also allows players to go back and do older daily hubs like Argent Tournament and Molten Front while still having a cash flow from it. More importantly it will keep more people playing the game longer than their normal 2 hour raid time.

2. Gold Sink. If enough people are interested in the BMAH it will be a very effective gold sink and people will save gold for a shot at the stuff they want. The catch is blizzard needs to put a wider variety of items to grab the interest of as many people as possible to ensure heated bidding wars, even if the bids are fairly low and somebody is able to take home an ashes of alar on the cheap it is still working as an effective gold sink compared having not implemented it.

3. Old Models. Its a perfect avenue to bring back old stuff or at least bring it to newer players attention. Ashes of Alar is a perfect example, some players may not know where that mount comes from or have seen anyone riding it. They see it on the BMAH and then look it up on wowhead and see that it is farmable which may be a far better way of obtaining it than having 500k gold to blow on it. Blizz had said at some point that they regretted pulling the black proto, which is why they havent pulled the mounts from other metas. With the BMAH they now have a way to bring stuff back while doing the least amount of damage to the prestige or the rarity of the items.

4. Outlet for other stuff. TCG mounts and pets should be included in the BMAH as well, once again going back to the appealing to many players. could you imaging the bidding war for a spectral tiger? Even a stack of one use items like paint bombs and sandbox tigers would catch someones eye. Even things from the Blizzard Store could make an appearance. There is also the possibility of items specific to the BMAH.

[tawnos]

what are the arguments FOR the BMAH?

I love the idea for rare mounts. Trying to run Ulduar or ICC for the next 10 years or go through the cess pool of trying to put together raids of people willing to take gold in lieue of drops is just miserable. Whether or not you wipe to years-old content isn't dependent on your skill or strategy its just a matter of how many degenerates are in the raid and the amount of time it takes to get the mount is just a function of that and pure luck.

I got the TK mount last night on the third try. I certainly don't feel like I 'earned' it as much as if I had managed to outbid people on the AH yet had I not gotten it in 100 tries I would have felt pretty miserable about it as well. With an extremely small chance drop like that not everyone or even most are going to fall into the happy medium of "working" at getting a mount drop and I think having the BMAH as a moderating influence ( if you're 30 kills in starting to set up an AH empire starts to seem like a better alternative) is a good use. I can see the same thing applying to rare drop heroic mode items as long as its well into the tier. I couldn't see a problem with having the occasional heroic Hardheart ring show up on a BMAH at this point of DS e.g.