Racial Superiority: Worgen vs. NE Bears in Cata?

[sacrifice]

Has anyone crunched numbers on the value of the Worgen 1% crit racial vs. NE 2% dodge for bears? The shadow/nature resist along with speed boost (Running Wild) are very attractive over NE racials, but I'm not sure how to start comparing the effect that 1% crit would have through SD and thus overall mitigation versus the benefit of 2% avoidance.

[Airowird]

I'm not sure how to compare either!
SD depends on your AP, haste, rotation & average boss hit, which is way too much to math out.

But the fact that Horde doesn't get any major benefit for tanking in their racials makes me wonna say "It's already better than the Troll racial, so just go with the best looks!"