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Thread: A quick and dirty Incite model

  1. #1
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    A quick and dirty Incite model

    Originally I posted this on my blog, but surprisingly nobody seems to have done the work yet on actual theorycrafting sites, probably because it's boring and deserves a much more in-depth treatment than I actually gave it. Neither Deep Wounds nor Hold the Line are included. Copy-pasting my results here.

    The numbers are slightly higher than you would expect with prot, because I counted a +3% crit damage meta into the calculations. Also, this model assumes you use every Incite proc.

    While waiting for my final (hopefully) download to complete on my ridiculously slow connection, I finally simmed out Incite like I’ve been meaning to. Please note that this particular sim is only applicable to Prot and Fury, because simming Deep Wounds requires taking into account possible overwrites from other abilities and that’s really more hassle than I want to go to at the moment.



    [Edit: The X axis is your paperdoll crit chance. The Y axis is the average percent increase in damage per heroic strike. So at 25% crit, with 3 points in Incite, your heroic strikes will be doing 33% more damage.]

    (snip)

    The exact numbers from my sim, if you’re interested. These are the average dpHS percent increases over a million Heroic Strikes.

    Crit 1p 2p 3p
    0.0 6.7 16.0 26.9
    5.0 8.1 18.2 29.2
    10.0 9.3 19.9 31.0
    15.0 10.3 21.3 32.2
    20.0 11.0 22.2 32.8
    25.0 11.6 22.9 33.2
    30.0 12.0 23.2 33.0
    35.0 12.4 23.3 32.7
    40.0 12.5 23.1 31.9
    45.0 12.4 22.7 30.8
    50.0 12.2 22.0 29.7
    55.0 12.0 21.1 28.2
    60.0 11.5 20.1 26.5
    65.0 10.9 18.8 24.6
    70.0 10.3 17.4 22.5
    75.0 9.5 15.9 20.3
    80.0 8.5 14.1 18.0
    85.0 7.5 12.3 15.5
    90.0 6.4 10.3 10.2
    95.0 5.2 5.1 5.2
    100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


    The code:


    Code:
    def inciteBeneSpread():
    basecrit = []
    incite1 = []
    incite2 = []
    incite3 = []
    for ii in range(0,21):
    basecrit.append(ii/20.0)
    incite1.append(inciteBene(1000000,ii/20.0,.03,1))
    incite2.append(inciteBene(1000000,ii/20.0,.03,2))
    incite3.append(inciteBene(1000000,ii/20.0,.03,3))
    print formatToFive("Crit")+ " " + formatToFive("1p") + " " +  formatToFive("2p") + " " + formatToFive("3p")
    for ii in range(len(basecrit)):
    print formatToFive(str(basecrit[ii]*100)) + " " +  formatToFive(str(round(incite1[ii]*100,1))) + " " +  formatToFive(str(round(incite2[ii]*100,1))) + " " +  formatToFour(str(round(incite3[ii]*100,1)))
    
     def formatToFive(stringnum):
    toReturn = ""
    for ii in range(5-len(stringnum)):
    toReturn += " "
    toReturn += stringnum
    return toReturn
    
     def inciteBene(samplesize, basecrit, addcritdmg, points):
    import random
    talenttotal = 0
    basetotal = 0
    proc = False
    for ii in range(samplesize):
    rng = random.random()
    # Keeping track of the baseline
    if(rng < basecrit):
    basetotal += 2 + addcritdmg
    else:
    basetotal += 1
    # If a proc is active from the last crit
    if(proc):
    talenttotal += 2 + addcritdmg
    proc = False
    elif(rng < basecrit+.05*points):
    talenttotal += 2 + addcritdmg
    if points == 3 or random.random() < points*.33:
    proc = True
    else:
    talenttotal += 1
    return (talenttotal-basetotal+0.0)/samplesize
    Last edited by Lindentree; 11-02-2010 at 09:54 AM.

  2. #2
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    Just trying to understand the graph, what are the X and Y axises (axi? axisus? lol)
    "What we need is a special blend of Psychology and extreme violence"

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Hoof View Post
    Just trying to understand the graph, what are the X and Y axises (axi? axisus? lol)
    axes(prounced ax-ees)

    http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/axis

  4. #4
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    Argh, I'm retarded. Knew I forgot something.

    The X axis is your base crit chance, and the Y axis is the percent increase in damage per heroic strike above a 0-point baseline. So with a 10% base crit chance (10 on the X axis) and 2 points in Incite (the green line), you gain a 20% average increase in Heroic Strike damage.

  5. #5
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    From the data it looks likes it's crit gained from incite versus crit chance? At 100% crit chance you gain no benefit from proccing incite crits and that's why the curve approaches zero at 100% crit. Each curve indicates either 1, 2, or 3 talent points specced into Incite.

  6. #6
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    Edited in an explanation of the axes under the graph, because I'm too lazy to go and edit the graph itself.

  7. #7
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    Interesting. Considering prot warriors are usually rolling with almost no crit except for the one given by talents (Hold the line, and war academy maybe when we are lv85), the HS damage increase by 3 points in Incite is around 30%.

    Personaly I'm using HS almost on CD, rage has not been an issue on raid bosses, and HS constitutes a very big part of my overall damage, so I think putting those 3 points in Incite is justified.

    By the way I assume that to account for the Hold the line 10% crit bonus we can just add 10 to our base crit chance % on the x axis?

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raiju View Post
    Interesting. Considering prot warriors are usually rolling with almost no crit except for the one given by talents (Hold the line, and war academy maybe when we are lv85), the HS damage increase by 3 points in Incite is around 30%.

    Personaly I'm using HS almost on CD, rage has not been an issue on raid bosses, and HS constitutes a very big part of my overall damage, so I think putting those 3 points in Incite is justified.

    By the way I assume that to account for the Hold the line 10% crit bonus we can just add 10 to our base crit chance % on the x axis?
    Yeah, that would be accurate while the buff is up. Just remember not to mix up "damage bonus from Hold the Line procs" with "damage bonus from Hold the Line talent", which depends on uptime.

    Definitely better for prot than War Academy IMO.

  9. #9
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    Maybe I am not up to speed on 4.01/Cata, but isn't there a 20% glancing blow chance, practically capping crit at max at around high 60s-Low 70s for every melee class? If that's the case, I would expect the graph to drop a lot earlier, unless the damage is only from solid hits/crits...? And that's also assuming you have capped hit and are behind the boss with sufficient expertise, or course.
    Last edited by Insahnity; 11-03-2010 at 09:51 AM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Insahnity View Post
    Maybe I am not up to speed on 4.01/Cata, but isn't there a 20% glancing blow chance, practically capping crit at max at around high 60s-Low 70s for every melee class? If that's the case, I would expect the graph to drop a lot earlier, unless the damage is only from solid hits/crits...? And that's also assuming you have capped hit and are behind the boss with sufficient expertise, or course.
    Only white hits can glance, and this graph only applies to yellow hits, specifically Heroic Strike . However, I believe agility and crit rating stop giving crit at 75%, so base crit values past that are only theoretical. (Unless under the effect of straight crit buffs like Hold the Line, but I doubt any prot warrior will be at 75% crit from stats!)

    I am indeed assuming capped yellow hit and expertise. I'm not sure how being below yellow hit cap/expertise cap would change the value of Incite. If incite procs give 100% chance to crit, overriding chance to miss/be dodged/be parried (similar to how -crit% talents cannot make a Lava Burst not crit), then Incite would be even more valuable below hit and expertise cap; but if the proc only converts all hit chance into crit chance, leaving dodge/parry/miss untouched, I'm not sure how that would affect the curve.

    I'll duel with a rogue or hunter later and see what I find.

  11. #11
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    Yellow attacks are a 2-roll system, so below the hit cap you do not only reduce the actual chance to gain a crit from Incite, the proc chance is also actually lower.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ion
    Damn old people, screwin' with my grind.
    Mists of Pandaria Protection Warrior Spreadsheet
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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by WarTotem View Post
    Yellow attacks are a 2-roll system, so below the hit cap you do not only reduce the actual chance to gain a crit from Incite, the proc chance is also actually lower.
    When did this change? I thought the vast majority of yellows were on the single-roll system. I thought most exceptions were sitting on rogues.

  13. #13
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    i'm with Booi, I'd need to see a link to where they without a doubt prove that yellow attacks are on a 2 roll system, it just doesn't make sense to do that to players vs. bosses, but have bosses vs players a 1 roll system.

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  14. #14
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    Hmmm, let's see ....

    elitistjerks.com/f31/t9816-hunter_spreadsheets_development/p53/#post619980
    That one is for ranged attacks.

    I can't seem to find my screenshots anymore of my old tests, so I'm just gonna have to redo them and post the results here tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Ion
    Damn old people, screwin' with my grind.
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  15. #15
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    Thanks WarTotem, I can't find documentation to suggest one way or the other.

    2006 - Back Stab: http://elitistjerks.com/f15/t9104-ba...ls/#post242422
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  16. #16
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    Well here are my thoughts:
    Choking Gas from the professor putricide fight, reduces your chance to hit by 100%. (http://www.wowhead.com/spell=72620)

    This is from Heroic Professor Putricide (25 Man) So it should be -100% to hit, not -75%. Also, this fury warrior is running 27% hit.

    http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/r...5602#tab-auras
    [19:37:36.838] Argøn afflicted by Choking Gas
    [19:37:41.619] Argøn Raging Blow Professor Putricide *15888* (O: -1)
    [19:37:41.619] Argøn Raging Blow Professor Putricide 3335 (O: -1)
    [19:37:56.815] Argøn's Choking Gas fades

    If it was a one roll system, anything that hit the boss, would be a crit. We have a normal hit here, which suggests that Raging Blow at least, is on a two roll system.
    Last edited by Booi; 11-09-2010 at 06:11 PM.

  17. #17
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    just seems counter intuitive. but i won't argue the facts.

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  18. #18
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    So far, it seems all white melee attacks as well as direct damage spells are single-roll. It is safe to assume that a debuff spell that does damage (read: DoTs), goes by a two roll table.

    Things I will test later on this week (whenever I got time to pop in a movie and have my G15 spam a button 2 hours in a row):
    * Spells that have both a Direct Damage and DoT portion
    * Direct damage yellow melee attacks
    * Yellow melee attacks with a debuff
    * Dual wield yellow attacks that are talented (Frost DK & Fury Warrior)
    * Ranged attacks (last on my list, just to make sure)

    I'm usually testing about 2000 executes of an ability (depending on the crit chance), using the level 80 dummy in Orgrimmar to prevent level difference quirkyness (it's the right one, should you care).
    Quote Originally Posted by Ion
    Damn old people, screwin' with my grind.
    Mists of Pandaria Protection Warrior Spreadsheet
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  19. #19
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    The thing is that dual-weapon abilities (that are always dual-weapon) seem to always have a 2-roll system.
    This is true for atleast Stormstrike & Mutilate, but one could be due to the debuff, the other due to being a Rogue ability.
    The Fury SMF Slam as well as the Frost DK dual strikes will need testing. Pre-4.0.1 Frost DKs could never miss with their OH, don't know if they fixed it by now or not.

    I will first be checking for Heroic Strike on the dummies tomorrow, so that should atleast provide a solution for the Incite debate.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ion
    Damn old people, screwin' with my grind.
    Mists of Pandaria Protection Warrior Spreadsheet
    Warlords of Draenor One Minute Field Guides

  20. #20
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    okay just did a quick log browsing
    http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/k08c2z4dfalrpsf3/

    [21:34:08.677] Tengenstein gains Incite from Tengenstein
    [21:34:11.117] Tengenstein casts Heroic Strike on Professor Putricide
    [21:34:11.117] Tengenstein Heroic Strike Professor Putricide Parry
    [21:34:11.121] Tengenstein's Incite fades

    It would appear that you can parry Gauranteed Crits. I would assume this means it is NOT a 1 roll system

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