Understanding Fury in 4.0

[defjam]

i do have my ilvl 245 trinket in my bank (+128 hit) , my question would be which should i replace? DBW or WFS?

and how do you reforge haste to hit? do i go see npc near the forges (capital cities) or something?

and yes, if you think i'm noob for asking question # 2 - go ahead....i've spent the last 18 hours trying to get my game fixed due to massive problems with downloader, patch and etc etc...and then when i did get the patcher fixed, i spent another 5 to 6 hours downloading and intalling the patch...i'm one tired dps warrior at work today...

also from what i read - once your hit capped or close to it, you should re-gem to +Str gems mostly? correct??

I also have ? for weapons..we are going to ICC25 tonight - Citadel would be a real darn good pickup wouldn't it (I have Byntroll and Blade of Ramaladhani (Saurfang axe)...but some other weapon options could be Cryptmaker and Warmace of Menethial would be good, correct?

sorry for the long post..

[Loganisis]

TGM - Haste / Hit.

Wouldn't Hit > Haste be greater for the same reason that Armor > Avoidance in 3.3.5 - in that it makes rage generation more consistent.

Over 1000 seconds of attacks the end result may be the same, but since you have to hit to generate rage, going hit before haste would result in smoother rage generation with fewer GCDs with insufficent rage due to miss strings?

Or does haste not just increase the number of swings per X seconds (faster swing timer) but also increase the amount of rage increased? Sorry, I don't fully understand haste in 4.0.1.

[Thegreatme]

what you just said gave me the answer.

haste increases the number of swings that go out on the target, hit increases the number of swings that land on the target. for each 1% haste you gain, those 1% more swings can still miss, meaning there will be <1% hits actually landing on the target.

Hit> Haste, but not by a whole lot.

[Krenian]

what you just said gave me the answer.

haste increases the number of swings that go out on the target, hit increases the number of swings that land on the target. for each 1% haste you gain, those 1% more swings can still miss, meaning there will be <1% hits actually landing on the target.

Hit> Haste, but not by a whole lot.

I seem to have recalled telling you this. Hrm! Guess the old man does know what he's speaking about huh? Lulz.

[shiz98]

TGM, can't you simplify that gargantuan equation by just doing

chance_to_be_enraged = (1-0.09)^HPS

If your rage uptime is 70%, then shouldn't any one second have a 70% chance of seeing you enraged? Or am I missing something here... I kinda skipped breaking that equation down :P

[Kamiell]

Hi, I been following this post and all others i can find and since im a loyal fan of TGM since BC and its work wanted to say thank you for the time you give to solve this problems and stuff. That said I wanted to se if if i should give up some haste to get more hit even thow im at 9% atm or should i try to get more mastery wich is at 15% atm for me. Here is the link to my warrior which i consider to have decent gear overall. Any feed back if you see a flaw or if there is anything i can do to improve it is most welcome. I went from 14kish to 6kish after patch and I do understand the reasons and i know we gona get some kind of fix soon, but would like ti hear some opinions. Just keep in mind that reforging do not show in armory atm. So quick stats unbufed are 9% hit 49% crit 27 exp 20% haste 15% mastery.

http://www.wowarmory.com/character-s...oon&cn=Kamiell

my rotation at the moment is BT - RB - Instant slam (repeat) and HS when i have enought rage which is getting hard to maintain atm for me. I took WW and cleave out for now since it seems i rage starve when i do use them and dont see the numbers I used to see before patch. Also noticed Slam has gotten very very weak not sure if its something im doing or what.

But thanks all for your time and insight. Have a good one all and remember warriors always pull it through the bad nerfs one way or another!

[Thegreatme]

TGM, can't you simplify that gargantuan equation by just doing

chance_to_be_enraged = (1-0.09)^HPS

If your rage uptime is 70%, then shouldn't any one second have a 70% chance of seeing you enraged? Or am I missing something here... I kinda skipped breaking that equation down :P

Doing that would tell you your chance to proc enrage at any given second, but because it does not account for the possible procs from the previous 9 seconds it will not accurately tell you the chance you will be enraged at any given second


also,
@kamiell

I wasn't doing anything related to theorycrafting or guide making in BC, so how did you know about me?

EDIT:
explanation of why my formula is so long:

the format in and of it's self is long because it calculates for hits/sec accounting for flurry uptimes and all that jazz. it's going to get longer once I fix the special attack hits/sec part of it so it can account for slam usage properly and what not.

the formula it's self is basically 10 repetitions of it's self because at any given second there are different durations that Enrage could be.

to figure out the likelyhood of enrage being on it's last 1s for a given second it's basically (chance to proc) * (chance to not proc)^8

why ^8?
because essentially the equation is calculating the odds of this outcome when looking at T:

T-9: PROC
T-8:NO PROC
T-7:NO PROC
T-6:NO PROC
T-5:NO PROC
T-4:NO PROC
T-3:NO PROC
T-2:NO PROC
T-1:NO PROC
T: enrage has 1 second left at the start of this second and fades at the end of this second.

the rest of this equation follows this same concept and the only number that changes is the exponent on the end of the chance to not proc because you only need to look as far back as the most recent proc. a

[Loganisis]

what you just said gave me the answer.

haste increases the number of swings that go out on the target, hit increases the number of swings that land on the target. for each 1% haste you gain, those 1% more swings can still miss, meaning there will be <1% hits actually landing on the target.

Hit> Haste, but not by a whole lot.

To build on this a little: Assuming a base weapon swing timer of 3.5 seconds and a hit rate of 80%, what is the difference between 1% haste (3.465 swing timer) and an 81% hit rate. (Assuming no dodge/parry because of positioning and adequate expertise)

I chose 10,000 seconds as the timer just to get numbers that were large enough to see the difference. 10,000 seconds is 166 minutes, 40 seconds, so it's obviously unrealistic, but it hightlights the difference and proves TGM's comment Hit > Haste, but not by a whole lot.


1% more hit: 10000s / 3.5 = 2857.143 swings * .81% hit = 2314.286 hits
1% more haste: 10000s / 3.465 = 2886.003 swings * .80% hit = 2308.802 hits.

That's a difference of less than 6 hits landed, if my math is correct, over 166 minutes and 40 seconds or something stupidly small, which is expected.

The difference between 2 white misses in a row, which is a bigger impact on a 'real' fight would be:

1% more hit .19 * .19 = 0.0361 probablity of 2 misses in a row, or 3.61% chance of a dual miss string
1% more haste .20 * .20 = 0.0400 probablity of 2 misses in a row, or 4.00% chance of a dual miss string

This would mean that there's a slightly greater DPS output of each 1% of hit >1% of haste, if it costs the same rating. I don't know the fine details - if there are diminishing returns or not for either and what the trade off is.

The trade off is slight enough that if you need fewer rating points to get 1% haste than 1% hit, then haste would be greater as long as you reach a point where you're comfortable with bad miss strings?

[Ion]

Some definitions:

• c = crit chance
• sMH = character sheet main hand speed (includes gear haste, but not flurry)
• sOH = character sheet off-hand speed (includes gear haste, but not flurry)
• h = white hit percentage
• n = 3*h+2 (assuming that our time to 3 swings is > 2 globals worth, see below)

average main hand swings per second (spsMH) = 1/(sMH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))
average off-hand swings per second (spsOH) = 1/(sOH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))
total average swings per second (sps) = spsMH + spsOH = (1/(sMH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))) + (1/(sOH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n)))))

average time to 3 swings (tt3s) = 3/sps = 3/((1/(sMH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))) + (1/(sOH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))))
- if this is > 3 seconds (which it almost certainly will be if you're titan's grip), then your + for n is 2, if it's less than it'll be 1...if it's really close to 3 seconds, you might consider using 1 as well (that's certainly possible...mine is close enough that it's somewhat sketchy to use 2). Basically it'd be n = 3*h+floor(3/((1/(sMH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))) + (1/(sOH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))))/1.5)...which is, of course, somewhat circular logic...and a vast oversimplification, probably.

average swings in 9 seconds = (9*sps)+5 = (9*((1/(sMH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))) + (1/(sOH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n)))))))+5
- This is assuming you can use 5 globals in those 9 seconds...if you were playing perfectly, got lucky with procs and had no latency you'd be able to do 6, but I'm sort of assuming here that at least one of those is probably not going to happen.

Chance to not proc enrage in 9 seconds = 0.91^((9*((1/(sMH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))) + (1/(sOH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n)))))))+5)

Enrage uptime = 1-(0.91^((9*((1/(sMH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n))))) + (1/(sOH*(1-(0.25*(1-(1-c)^n)))))))+5))

Unless I've missed something, that should be a reasonably accurate way of figuring it out. Obviously there's some fudge factor involved in that...especially in the value of n and the swings in 9 second calculation.

...I've forgotten why I was trying to find that out. AH HA...the OP:

1pt= (0.0313*X+0.013041)*100 % DPS increase

Where X is the enrage uptime. For me that worked out to 0.7073, so:

0.0313*0.7073+0.013041 ~= 0.03518

So a 3.5% dps increase...that seems like a lot, doesn't it?

Death Wish has a 30/144 = 20.83% uptime (as stated), each point in mastery increases its bonus damage by 3.13%, so increases your damage by 0.00626 * uptime = 0.0013041 (or 0.13041%).

Enrage can only be up during the 114 seconds that Death Wish isn't up (or, rather, can only be usefully up, since they don't stack...I'm not sure if it doesn't proc during Death Wish or not, but it's not relevant), so it can only have a maximum uptime of 79.17%. Of THAT, it has (for me) a 70.73% uptime (which works out to about 56% total). The actual damage increase is 0.00313 for each point, times the uptime so 0.001752 (or 0.1752%) for me.

Adding those up is: 0.0013041+0.001752 = 0.0030561 or about 0.3% of a dps increase...which seems much more reasonable.

The only thing remaining is just to determine how much mastery rating = 1 point of mastery.

Anyone?

[Bung]

You math guys are giving me a headache. Speak in lamens terms like "I tested this on the dummy....here is what you do". Should I change all of my haste to hit to get to 27%? This just feels plain weird to me. Why didn't blizz just replace armor pen with hit on gear?

[Thegreatme]

math explains why you got the results you observed on the target dummy, and therefore allow you to make accurate predictions about the DPS values of each stat, which you can then use to tell you "what to do"

[Bung]

I do appreciate what you are doing, don't get me wrong. I would like to know based on your math the correct way to balance out my stats as of today.

[Ion]

Well...it looks like "don't use mastery" is the only definitive answer so far (for fury)...hit seems slightly better than haste but how that relates to crit is unexplained so far.

[Krenian]

I do appreciate what you are doing, don't get me wrong. I would like to know based on your math the correct way to balance out my stats as of today.

You must understand that the patch is relatively new and the information is still being processed right now. That's why they're throwing the math numbers out like this, so when they are ready, then cay say "This is what you wanna do."

[Thegreatme]

str> hit> haste>crit>mastery
crit might be ahead of haste but that's pretty dependent on what you determine to be your hits per 3 swings

[Kamiell]

@TGM

I started playing way far into BC might not sure when i fisrt found your vids and guides but been using them ever since, (at least a couple of years it seems to me) the point is I love the work you done and how good it is. thats all.

On another Note blizzard said wars got fixed last night im testing my war and not finding any big diference anyone can colaborate? Thanks

[Bung]

Ok. I will have to be patient then...sigh. I really felt like such a master of things a week ago. This feeling has me all upset. I'm glad you masters of numbers are working on this because imo the whole fury warrior community needs some definitive answers. Prot too from what I've seen. I know the patch is new but don't fury warriors who played on the PTR know things ahead of patches like this?

[Krenian]

str> hit> haste>crit>mastery
crit might be ahead of haste but that's pretty dependent on what you determine to be your hits per 3 swings

Does crit give you more rage? I could have sworn that they said that this isn't the case anymore and it's just damage. If that's the case, haste would most likely trump crit on the fact that it gets you more swings in to hit more often to get more rage to activate your skills.

[Thegreatme]

Ok. I will have to be patient then...sigh. I really felt like such a master of things a week ago. This feeling has me all upset. I'm glad you masters of numbers are working on this because imo the whole fury warrior community needs some definitive answers. Prot too from what I've seen.

which exactly how I felt before I picked up a calculator and started playing with numbers. anyone can do this math it's just whether you are willing to spend the time to do it and whether you are willing to learn the patterns. lots of advil helps too.

as far as the hotfix is concerned I noticed about a 1k DPS increase on the boss target dummy from yesterday to today.

[Ion]

CRAP. I left out raging blow (which requires you to be enraged to use, so is affected by mastery).

So mastery is slightly better than I said above. But let's assume that RB is ... something big: 25% of your dps.

Which means that 0.0313 * 0.25 is the additional value of mastery for RB, or 0.007825.

Add that to the old 0.0030561...and suddenly that's not ass, actually...about 1%.

So...dammit...how much of our DPS is actually Raging blow?