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Thread: A contribution to early Cataclysm theorycrafting

  1. #1
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    A contribution to early Cataclysm theorycrafting

    tankscataV1.3english.xls.zip updated october 6th 2010

    Here's a little spreadsheet I've done trying to modelize the main theorycrafting aspects of a fictionnal Cataclysm tank warrior (but with some changes, you can adapt it to another class).

    The main reflexion is about how the new block (=mastery), the new parry (Edit : no more, back to classic), and the disparition of a lot of miss related to defense would affect the main theorycrafting standards like EHP, total mitigation, Tankpoints, time to live, and so on.

    This is a personnal and prototypical research, and I perfectly know there is far better theorycrafters than me on this forum, like Sattori, Satrina, Aggathon and others. This is precisely why I post here. I hope it may interest you, and I hope you could offer corrections and share your opinion.

    The main thing lacking in my spreadsheet is Blood craze (http://cata.wowhead.com/spell=16492). I'll add it in a future version. Avoidance should have bad effects on this talent. (Edit : added)

    Besides, my feeling is that Mastery cannot easily compete with dodge and parry, unless very high DR.

    Regards,

    Aradril


    ps : excuse my english, i'm not native.
    Last edited by Aradril; 10-05-2010 at 06:06 PM.

  2. #2
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    Your English was great, but I am always really hesitant to theorycraft an expansion 2 months away from launching. A lot is subject to change in that time. A whole lot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aradril View Post
    Attachment 2265 (no virus ^^)

    The main reflexion is about how...the new parry...
    The Parry change was reverted a while back. It now acts exactly the same as Dodge does.

    I'm also confused as there appears to be 2 places where EHP is caluclated, but they are vastly different numbers (~400k vs ~730k). Same thing with number of hits to kill a tank (one says 4, the other says 7). I see they are called "Tankpoints" or something similar in the notes, but at first glance it does look confusing as they are both refered to as "Effective health" - when only one truely should be.

    I'd recommend using a term other than "effective health" when referring to total tank effectiveness such as Whitetooth's Tankpoints, et al.

    Small things:
    The swing speed (with debuff) doesn't automatically change when you change the boss' base swing speed, but it wasn't had to manually do.
    The default vaules aren't likely to be what tanks will have when they first hit 85. Examples: 50k armor (nearly at the cap, even for level 88 mobs), 40% block, avoidance is proably high too, but that's just opinion honestly.

    Edit - I figured out why the armor reduction was looking odd to me. In Cataclysm, they've changed the armor DR again:
    http://elitistjerks.com/f15/t29453-c..._85_cataclysm/

    Code:
    Cell B20:
    =(B10/(B10+2167.5*B1-158167.5))*100
    Last edited by Andenthal; 09-27-2010 at 03:22 PM.
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  4. #4
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    Thanks for your comments,

    I didn't know about the change reverse for parry. I didn't see any blue post about that. But if that's true, that's a relief, because I wasn't fan of the new mecanism (and I'm not so sure about my modelization).

    I admit that what i called here "average effective health" can be confusing because pure EH is designed to be guaranteed, fixed. On the other hand, Whitetooth's Tankpoints are nothing different that and averaged effective health, that's the same formula including statistical effects of avoidance and block. Maybe people oppose too much those two concepts (EH and tankpoints), although there not so different in the idea. One is about a fixed, guaranteed pool, the other about an average, statistical pool. That's not opposite, that's more complementary. EH is about a worst case burst scenario, Tankpoints is about a average case burst scenario. Although all that has been said about RNG being bad, demonstrating it by A+B, I still believe, as well as a lot of tanks, that the two concepts deserve consideration. If "average effective health" seems confusing, or heretic, just call it Tankpoints like Whitetooth, but then, you cut a semantic link between concepts that are, in a sens, nothing but twins.

    Same thing for the number of hits to kill a tank, one line is about "minimum number of hits", another line about "average number of hits". That's the same problematic as EH/Tankpoints. The same with "time to kill the tank". I think the two lines atr interesting and complementary. A good tank has to live as long as possible in a worst case scenario, but also in an average - and more likely to happen - scenario.

    Besides, you're right about the other little things, I'll fix that. Maybe 45k armor would be more reaslitic ? I don't know. Cata items have loads of armor. Moreover, I wasn't refering to a tank just reaching lvl 85, but more to a tank with a T11 gear. Anyway, that's just default and arbitrary values. xD

    I'll present a rectified spreadsheet soon.

    Aradril
    Last edited by Aradril; 09-27-2010 at 09:04 PM.

  5. #5
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    With the new armor DR calcs in there, 50k armor isn't looking that bad - like 60% reduction. It was just that 50k armor was showing like 68% armor reduction on a level 88 mob with the old formula, and that didn't sound right for first tier raiding.

    Regarding the terminology behind "average effective health". It would be like if someone came out with something to try to compare block to pure avoidance (Miss/Dodge/Parry). They would show some very detailed math about how X% of block is basically the same damage reduction or TTL increase as having X% of Avoidance, and called it "average avoidance".

    While their math isn't techncially inaccurate, the terminology is - as we currently understand that avoidance = taking zero damage. Even if you can prove hands down that XX% block is the exact same as X% avoidance - you can't call it avoidance (average or otherwise) , because it is not.

    That's how I look at Whitetooth's Tank Point numbers. I actually have his addon installed in game (was great for gearing for heroic Anub) as it kinda boils everything down to a common number. It's quicker to see if 25 Defense is more or less than 20 Dodge. The part that's misleading though, is if I have 280k EHP, I can take 280,000 points of raw damage before I die. This is something I can calculate and verify. It's undeniable.

    Having 511k "average EHP" doesn't necessarily mean I can take 511,000 points of raw damage before I die. It's calculating avoidance in there (in which I take zero damage) and mitigation (where a portion of the damage is absorbed). The "average" part is due to avoidance - where sometimes you do, and sometimes you don't. That's why the "average EHP" number is nearly twice as large as the true EHP number. This is contradictory to the theory of EH - where you'll always be able to take (or not take) the same amount of damage.

    (both 280k EHP and 511k "average EHP" were taken directly from the sheet, one is 182.5% larger than the other)

    Really what you have is "number of hits to kill a tank in worst case" (which is a function of what we currently call "effective health") and "number of swings to kill a tank in best case". The bolded, underlined part is because it includes avoidance, which isn't technically a "hit", and absorbs, which are not worst case.

    Edit:
    I thought of another way to look at it. If you break the terms down you can see where the disparity is (at least IMO).

    Effective Health - the amount of raw damage you can take - assuming all other factors fail (worst case), before dieing.

    Average Effective Health would then mean:
    The average amount of raw damage you can take in a worst case scenario, before dieing.

    What's the average worst case?
    Last edited by Andenthal; 09-28-2010 at 04:30 PM. Reason: further explanation
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    Average Effective Health would then mean:
    The average amount of raw damage you can take in a worst case scenario, before dieing.
    This seems totally redundant. The average amount would be effected by time (or boss swings), as your EH would not change. This would otherwise be known as.... EH.

    If you are talking about damage, talk about damage.

    If you are talking about EH, talk about EH.

    Do not confuse the two, or people reading become confused. Separate out the ideas, and you have a clear picture.
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    Many super intelligent people who dwarf my ability to compute mathematics have tried to come up with a single super variable that takes into account incoming damage, EH, spell damage, avoidance, etc aka the "quotient value". It simply is too hard to come up with, if not impossible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kazeyonoma View Post
    Many super intelligent people who dwarf my ability to compute mathematics have tried to come up with a single super variable that takes into account incoming damage, EH, spell damage, avoidance, etc aka the "quotient value". It simply is too hard to come up with, if not impossible.
    Or more accurately, if you were to find a value to represent it all in some way, you would no longer accurately represent any of the constituents in a meaningful way.


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  9. #9
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    Thanks for your comments,

    tankscataV1.3english.xls.zip updated october 6th 2010

    Here's a corrected version of my spreadsheet including :
    - some terminology correction
    - parry correction (back to classic parry = avoidance)
    - new armor DR (thanks Anden for the Whitetooth link)
    - lesser default values (still it's just a customizable example)
    - a try to ~ modelize Blood Craze effect (with Field Dressing)
    - little improvements

    Don't worry about the "average EH" thing anymore. There was never a disagreement about what you and I call EH, in the most classic way. The debate was just a question of pure terminology. What I called "average EH" wasn't at all EH in the common sense, it was nothing but Whitetooth's Tankpoints, as you noted. I doesn't reflects an "average worst case scenario", what is absurd, but simply an "average case scenario". The reason was linked to the formula striking parallelism,
    - worst case scenario metavalue : EH = HP / ( 1 - guaranteed mitigation)
    - average case scenario metavalue : Tankpoints = HP / ( 1 - statistical mitigation)
    But I give up with that, I swear xD

    @ Kaze & Satorri : I would say that metavalues doesn't delete basic values, it's merely an additive information. The main interest is comparison and optimizing with different perspectives. EH is a metavalue just like Tankpoints, just like Total mitigation (or statistical), or average required HPS. It's worth to calculate those different metavalues. Each is about survivability, but each has a different goal, a different meaning. EH is not the only one that matters in all cases. That's why I tried to gather all this.

    Concerning specifically Whitetooth's Tankpoints, I won't say it's like THE super magic variable that explain everything. No. It's not a metametametavalue ^^. It's just a metavalue of the same degree as EH and very parallel to it in the formula. But it reflects a rational point of balance between EH and total or statistical mitigation, so it's still good to keep in mind. I regret it recently went away from Rawr ProtWar, cause it's great to have a cursor to weight EH against mitigation, but it was greater to have a metavalue that can assist in that weighting, wich is otherwise purely arbitrary. Information is always welcome. I think that Whitetooth's Tankpoints could be more usefull in Cata that they we're in WotlK.

    Ara

    ps : I did not change all the criticized terminology, but I may change more later
    Last edited by Aradril; 10-05-2010 at 06:03 PM.

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