Originally Posted by

**Winterburn**
Mind you, you aren't just looking just at hit vs miss chance, you're looking at a chance to hit X times in a row, which is much more complex. I think you're getting it confused with actual hit vs miss mechanic, which indeed obeys binomial distribution. **But the event of getting hit X times in a row out of Y total swings is not by any account binary, since you can get hit X times in a row either zero times or once or twice or thrice, etc.** If you stop counting after the first time, your chance calculation is just get plain wrong, since you miss out a huge chunk of the actual probability.

Say, your X is 5 and Y is 200. If the probabiliy to get hit 5 times in a row in just 20 swings is P(20), you can't just day that you'll get hit 5 times in a row in 200 swings with the probability of P(20), since P(200) will be much bigger. Neither will multiplication of P(5) by 10 help you, since the chance of getting hit 5 times in a row for any given set of 5 swings is not independent, thus, simple multiplication won't work.

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