For Icecrown Citadel, expertise is roughly 91% as effective as dodge rating for reducing incoming damage, assuming a boss swing speed of 1.4 seconds (after JotJ). It varies significantly with boss attack speed though, from 78% @ 1.2 to 154% @ 2.4 speed.
For Warriors, this range narrows to 52-102%, with an "average" of 60% at 1.4-speed.
For Druids, it's 49-98%, with an "average" of 60%
For Death Knights, the range becomes 36-71%, with an "average" of 46%.
For bosses outside of Icecrown, we would use an average swing speed of around 2.0, giving average values of 87% for paladins (53%-104% range), 57% for warriors (30%-69%), 56% for druids (28%-68%), and 29%-45% for Death Knights (28%-52%).
All of these can be seen in the plots in the "results" section.
Each point of expertise rating (above the soft-cap) also gives a Paladin about 60% the threat that a point of STR would.
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