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Thread: Same Loot drop combinations in ulduar25..bad luck?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2009

    Same Loot drop combinations in ulduar25..bad luck?

    So for whatever reason the last 4 weeks in a row we've gotten the EXACT same loot drops off certain bosses... FL, Razerscale, XT, kologarn, and Auriaya have been dropping the exact same loot....it's been so bad that last night i called what would drop off auriaya prior to the kill, and i called every item correctly (leather gloves, BoE caster head, and the caster DPS 1h sword.)....it is entirely possible that this is just luck.... but it's been happening so often consecutivly that it's hard to claim it just as luck.... i read somewhere that changing up who the raid leader is from week-week can cause more sparatic loot drops, but again i'm not sure there is any truth behind that. So..... what do you guys think? mere coincidence?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    In our ulduar 10, for the past 6 weeks Thorim hard drops the same very dagger, its VERY frustrating.

  3. #3
    It's still not 100% sure but according to many info loot table is probably defined when
    a) Raid leader
    b) Convert party to raid
    c) Enters the raid instance

    Switching raid leader might shift things a bit but still it's huge RNG. We killed KT for like 15 times untill we went to Ulduar - not a single BoH/LL... Then we went in to help friends/alts... Tide/BoH/LL+2 tokens same night droped... I coudn't belive... All our players had by then gun/cloaks/necks... it's complete RNG but changing raid leader might roll that RNG to different direction more.
    Mookey | GM of <RISE> Xavius [EU]

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    I can't get to the original because the US forums are down, but refer to this:

    WoW BlueTracker: The Unofficial Raids and Dungeons Forum FAQ

    Specifically, Tigole debunking this myth:

    Q u o t e:
    Poster: Tigole at 9/6/2005 7:41:03 PM PDT
    Subject: Re: Upcoming Chromaggus Changes - 1.7.0

    Loot determination has nothing to do with who the raid leader is.
    Loot is random over a statistically meaningful data set. No single person experiencing Ulduar since 3.1 came out has gathered anything close to a statistically valid data set - you'd have to run it continuously for years to even approach that size of data.

    The only thing that can show you trends over large data sets are sites like wowhead. Auriya's page clearly shows a pretty even distribution of loot:

    Auriaya - NPC - World of Warcraft

    The human brain loves to find patterns, even where none exist. Loot is random; you've just been unlucky for a while. Your brain is trying to integrate that into your fundamental (possibly unconcious) belief that you should not be unlucky.

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