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Thread: Bladeward vs. Mongoose

  1. #41
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    It's only a waste concerning potential threat. Again, avoiding is a chance, just because you didn't avoid doesn't mean you weren't in a better place with the buff up.

  2. #42
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    Actualy thats exactly what i am saying and your not understanding. If you do not get a parry when the buff was up, the increased parry did not give any avoidance that you would not of had otherwise. At best your turning a hit into a block. But thats not avoidance.

    I fail to see why that is so hard of a concept for you to grasp. I am not saying that it didnt give you an icreased chance of avoidance when the buff what up, but i am saying that if you do not have a parry durring the time period when the buff was up, the buff did not grant you any avoidance that was effective(effective means it was used).

    If the avoidance from bladeward was added randomly on the attack table i could see your argument, but its not. A blade ward proc that ticks off with no parries did zero avoidance.

  3. #43
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    Right, but what I'm saying is that just because it didn't provide a parry doesn't make it worthless. Sure if you took a normal hit every time attack while the buff was up avoidance screwed you. But your chance to avoid overall was increased, which means you could have been dodging/missing in the window it was up, there was still a higher parry chance and thus could have been a parry. You can't judge avoidance as being bad when it doesn't happen because the point is its usefulness when it happens.

  4. #44
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    Actually you judge avoidance on the % of times it helps not just when it was helpful.

    And you have to just have a total brain failure if after all my posts your arguing that dodging or having misses up while you had the blade ward proc had anything at all to do with the proc on the weapon. Any Miss or dodge you had with the proc up would have happened if you had never even enchanted blade ward on your weapon. Blade ward will only ever do one of three things turn a block into a parry or turn a hit into a block or nothing at all a hit stays a hit. Thats it, thats the only possible things the buff can do for you. Overall avoidance doesnt matter because the buff only affects one type.

    If blade ward gave you a static 99% avoidance while the proc was up, every proc that did not result in avoidance was a proc that gave no avoidance. Its that simple.

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Lizana View Post
    Blade ward will only ever do one of three things turn a block into a parry or turn a hit into a block or nothing at all a hit stays a hit. Thats it, thats the only possible things the buff can do for you. Overall avoidance doesnt matter because the buff only affects one type.
    This is false. This enchant will have absolutely zero effect on the amount of blocks happening. Block chance will neither increase nor decrease while this buff is up or not. I don't see how you can declare that only things below it on the attack table can be effected when they're not being pushed off the table.

    Try thinking of the attack table being the wheel on the wheel of fortune with 100 rungs for the peg to go bing against as it spins. It may go around more or less than once but there are only 100 possible results. This is why pushing a normal hit off makes some other option more likely to happen. (oh my god this includes things before it on the combat table... like dodge. Wow.)

    Did you play wow in the days of the crushing blow mechanic on bosses? We used to hit shield block, not to force a block but to push crushing blows off the table. We were never so stupid to say that "well, I didn't actually block while the buff was up so that was a worthless skill to use." We realized that the pushing of something off the combat table has value. In this case we're realizing that "normal hit" is being reduced on the table, and that has more value than you seem willing to accept.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lizana View Post
    Actually you judge avoidance on the % of times it helps not just when it was helpful.
    I'm wondering if you've ever taken a logic or statistics class cause you seem to be less and less scientific in your evaluations and more and more political with the delivery of your argument. By this I mean that you seem to only make sense after a cursory look. Once actual mechanics and logic are used to evaluate your statements it just seems to show that you're wrong and just trying to sell this as a fail enchant. Look at the part I quoted ... then read it again. Sounds like someone trying to sound philosophical and scientific while failing to actually be right. Why Lizana? What are you trying to sell and why do you so earnestly spread misinformation?
    Last edited by Superspy23; 06-22-2009 at 06:14 PM.

  6. #46
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    You see thats your problem, your viewing the attack table as the wheel. View it correctly as a series of values that correspond with die rolls. When you gain the blade ward buff it adds the parry to the end of the parry area. That area is normally blocks. So any attack you were going to parry with the blade ward buff up that you would not have parried otherwise would have been a block if you did not have the buff up. Then at the bottom of the block table the same about of parry you had added at the bottom of the parry table will be added causing it to shift to the new values. This is why a normal hit can only become a block, and a block becomes a parry. There isnt a wheel with the avoidance put randomly around it, if that was the case, you would be right, but it isnt. Its a value table with some variables having priority at the top.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Lizana View Post
    You see thats your problem, your viewing the attack table as the wheel. View it correctly as a series of values that correspond with die rolls. When you gain the blade ward buff it adds the parry to the end of the parry area. That area is normally blocks. So any attack you were going to parry with the blade ward buff up that you would not have parried otherwise would have been a block if you did not have the buff up. Then at the bottom of the block table the same about of parry you had added at the bottom of the parry table will be added causing it to shift to the new values. This is why a normal hit can only become a block, and a block becomes a parry. There isnt a wheel with the avoidance put randomly around it, if that was the case, you would be right, but it isnt. Its a value table with some variables having priority at the top.
    No you look at it wrong cause you look at like dice... See what I did there?

    How do you know that it adds it at the end of the parry section? What if I was earnestly saying that it is always added as the first percentages of the parry and all the other parry amounts were pushed back later? That is just stupid. I understand which stats push off which stats. Are you saying you have evidence that each piece of rating has its own number assigned to it? Do you have inside knowledge of how the game code processes the combat table? Are you saying that the servers are rolling a real 100 sided dice like from dungeons and dragons each time we interact with a mob in game? Do you realize you're just lost yet?

    I don't care if you want to think of it as dice or a wheel or a tornado with 100 balloons and a thumb tack all swirling around in it. There is no amount of real understanding of statistics in your statement. Seriously take a class or pay me a professors wage and maybe I'll teach you but what it all comes down to is that you're wrong.

  8. #48
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    The Protection Paladin Field Manual (WoW-3.0/WotLK) - Elitist Jerks

    Attack table, 100% block and you - Elitist Jerks

    Defense Theory I: The Attack Table and You | Altitis

    Attack tables and you

    Attack table - WoWWiki - Your guide to the World of Warcraft

    Everyone of them agrees with my post about the way the attack table is done. There is a priority of stats in the table, and a single die roll to check value.

    This is totally different than your idea of a wheel, because with a wheel, it has no priority status for stats.

  9. #49
    I'm sorry you still don't understand.

    Assigning which places on the wheel are what is the priority system of "pushing things off the table." That's mechanics. These numbers are set before they are applied by actually being hit or hitting etc.

    However when the roll happens there are no changes in the table and each possible result has the same chance of happening. This latter part is statistics. You will simply avoid, mitigate or be hit.

    What some of us have been trying to tell you is that while the buff is active the avoidance chance is increased and the hit chance is decreased. The type of avoidance that happened while the buff was active is irrelevant as the important thing is that there is more survivability (via the combat table) while the buff is active. We can then compare this combat table to other combat tables and weigh the benefits and figure out which is superior. We can even break the duration of active buff to when its not active and get an average. We actually use a scientific process.

  10. #50
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    Your talking about what might happen, I am talking about your logs and what realy did happen. Your talking about what has a chance to happen, and i will agree, it has a chance to happen, But what i am talking about is how often that chance actually happens based on logs. If you flip a coin, it has a 50-50 chance for results, but the actually % of end results rarely match up to the possible theoretical benefits.

    Basically your arguing well it has the possibility to do this, and i am saying it isnt doing that based on your logs and everyone elses logs out there. Thats why i am useing the terms "effective up time" instead of just uptime or possible uptime.

    You have a chance to be killed by a meteorite, doesn't mean that you should walk around always watching the sky. I am looking at the actual numbers from the real usage of the buff and how effective the buff is when figuring in real usage and attacks. I have never said it doesn't offer avoidance, instead i have said that avoidance isnt effective because of the real life results of the proc.

    And as a side note

    "It may go around more or less than once but there are only 100 possible results" is the part where you became inaccurate with a wheel analogy. The game will never have a RNG that goes over the possible outcomes.

  11. #51
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    It doesn't matter how many times it goes around the wheel, there are still the same number of outcomes. You really REALLY need to read a book or take a class on probability and statistics because you still don't seem to understand. With avoidance you HAVE to look at what might happen and the chances/probabilities for certain outcomes. Looking at what happened in just a single case which will most likely never happen the same way again is useful but not the whole picture.

  12. #52
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    You do realize that i understand stats just fine, and i am not arguing the chance of something happening, i am pointing out the actual times it does. And i do not believe multiple peoples logs of muliple hours of raiding consists of a single case.

    And as far as your wheel idea goes, your right for actual stat probability it doesn't matter how many times the wheel spins, but when your looking the increased chance to land in a set area based on a single die roll it just doesn't compute.

    Probability is great when your considering the chance of something to happen, but as a realist i prefer to look at the actual results instead of hoping rng rolls my way...

  13. #53
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    Having read this entire chain, I am left unclear as to the end point from the starting proposition.

    Putting aside the exchange on the usefulness of BladeWard (which is no closer to resolution and anyone can see will never be agreed between the 2 adversaries for each position ), what is the potential benefit Mongoose provides as distinct to what BladeWard provides? ie is Mongoose better for an OT as opposed to an MT (which is open on the data presented to date).

    Also, how does one throw Accuracy into the mix which still appears as a suggested enchant on Prot Guides? or should we ignore Accuracy for any high level raiders?

  14. #54
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    I'ld just like to say Lizana that, following dice rolls etc. as you explained in the last 2 pages, your 'Blade Ward can do 3 things' statement made here is incorrect.

    Blade Ward does atleast one and possibly both of following;
    * It turns a normal hit into a Parry, when you can be hit normally
    * It turns a block into a Parry when you are avoidance capped, by pushing block off the table in favor of parry.

    Your statement of Blade Ward turning hits into blocks is irrelevant, because you can't prove that that block would've been a normal hit if it wasn't for Blade Ward. This is what Superspy is trying to say.(*)
    You are completely right about the combat table, but at ANY given time during a boss fight where he swings at you, there will be certain numbers in that table and which side of the dice says what is irrelevant, it will only matter how much chance you have on landing with that certain side up. You two were just trying to explain the same thing to eachother in different ways

    That being said, I think people need to rethink on how to calculate the usefullness of Blade Ward. Here is how I think you best do it;

    1) Calculate the actual PPM using your normal rotation, including raid buffs and parry chance vs a specific target. (number: PPM)
    2) Calculate your parry chance vs that target with Blade Ward up.
    3) Calculate the average time it takes for that Blade Ward buff to be consumed. (number: duration)
    4) Define uptime as PPM * duration / 60s
    5) If you want accurate math; calculate the PPM for Blade Ward while you already have 1/2/3/4 stacks up and redo steps 2-4. Use a weighted average to gain the final result; the average amount of parry rating Blade Ward gives you over time.
    6) Calculate the total DPS done by the Blade Ward proc if you wish to consider threat.
    7) Do steps 1-6 again for every other boss you plan on using Blade Ward.
    9) If you feel bored, redo everything with a different base parry chance.
    10) Post your results here, mentioning the only two relevant conclusions one can make , being;

    * Depending on your pre-Blade Ward parry chance and the amount of swings you receive, Blade Ward will balance itself between more avoidance (more uptime) or more threat (more buff consumes)
    * I missed out number 8.


    Edit: On Accuracy, I can only say that you would need to compare the threat gain vs that of Mongoose (pretty easy) and if you think it'll matter, that of the parry numbers above (GL with that one )


    (*) As a side-note, I'ld just like to say that this is the same for Mongoose, as increasing your dodge chance also pushes hits and/or blocks from the table. So in a Blade Ward vs Mongoose debate, especially if you focus on the avoidance part, this part of the discussion is only relevant when only one of the buffs pushes hit off the tables and the other one doesn't

  15. #55
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    You guys complicate things too much.

    I have had both mongoose and blade ward, currently have blade ward.

    Although it does proc less often than mongoose, I dont find the proc rate bad at all, and anytime I have a chance of increasing my chances to completely avoid a 15k+ hit, I sure as hell am going to take it.


    So, bottom line, I like the enchant better than mongoose, because it does increase my chances to live longer, more than mongoose would ever do even if it had a 100% uptime.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stompya View Post
    So, bottom line, I like the enchant better than mongoose, because it does increase my chances to live longer, more than mongoose would ever do even if it had a 100% uptime.
    That has already been dis proven because of the up times of both enchants


    I'ld just like to say Lizana that, following dice rolls etc. as you explained in the last 2 pages, your 'Blade Ward can do 3 things' statement made here is incorrect.

    Blade Ward does atleast one and possibly both of following;
    * It turns a normal hit into a Parry, when you can be hit normally
    * It turns a block into a Parry when you are avoidance capped, by pushing block off the table in favor of parry.

    Your statement of Blade Ward turning hits into blocks is irrelevant, because you can't prove that that block would've been a normal hit if it wasn't for Blade Ward. This is what Superspy is trying to say.(*)
    You are completely right about the combat table, but at ANY given time during a boss fight where he swings at you, there will be certain numbers in that table and which side of the dice says what is irrelevant,
    The only way blade ward could turn a hit into a parry is if you blade ward gives more parry than your block chance. Because just because you have the buff up doesn't mean the game is going to roll a different number than it would have if you didn't have the buff up. Go back and reread what i am saying about the attack table. You have the set values, and the game "rolls" and the roll falls into one of those values. I am saying compare the results of what would of happen with the proc up compared to what would have happened without the proc up. Right below parry is block so any hits that would be avoided with the buff up compared to without would have fallen in the range of numbers for your block. And unless you push down your parry with the buff to result in taking over the space reserved for regular hits on the non proc table, a regular hit will never become a parry with blade ward. ( Keep in mind this is using the standard example of it not stacking to 5 stacks, at 5 stacks you might have more parry rating from it than block if your geared weird)


    Mongoose would will provide a higher uptime and consistent threat at mitigation at the OT role, but if you want threat i would go with accuracy. It is still higher threat than any avoidance enchant could hope to be.

    And as a side note to the people that think i am advocating mongoose over bladeward because i like mongoose, I dont. I hate all avoidance proc enchants. But it is clear in comparison between the two that the level 70 enchant is out preforming the level 80 one, and if enough people can realize that and stop using the enchant, blizzard might reconsider the enchant and buff it.

  17. #57
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    People don't care which one you like more. People think your reasoning is flawed. More than just me too. When more than one person tells you your wrong maybe its time to reconsider and take another look at your argument. Your argument of x turning into y or z being pushed down is simply irrelevant in any meaningful way of comparing these two enchants. Your comparison is taking into account a very limited and short sighted view of how the two enchants work and discounting Blade Ward as a terrible enchant based on your made-up "Effective Uptime" alone. Maybe Mongoose is better, your reasoning and argument however does very little to prove this.

  18. #58
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    Actually i have yet to see anyone post any proof that i am incorrect. People are disagreeing on my way to judge the effectiveness of the avoidance gained, but what i am saying has yet to be dis proven. I am using math and theory craft to judge the effectiveness of the avoidance gained by the proc of blade ward. You can say that number isnt relevant to you and not care, but that doesnt change the fact that the number is correct.

    Also anyone that has bothered to read should be able to see that from Tarigar's avoidance calculator, that with the observed uptimes of blade ward vs the observed uptimes of mongoose that mongoose wins in the amount of total avoidance given. Please use the tools already posted in the thread and plug in your own numbers for blade ward and the numbers provided for mongoose uptime.

    You are still trying to argue against me instead of providing any data or theory craft to disprove an statement i made or to prove claims you are making.

    Please either add something to the actual discussion besides trying to start a fight with me, or drop it.

  19. #59
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    You aren't proving anything. You are posting info about the combat table that can be found anywhere. Its not your theory craft, its common info found on the net. It is being applied incorrectly.

    Just because you know something and have tools does not automatically make you correct, especially when you apply them incorrectly. People are telling you to get a better understanding of statistics because this is the only way you will be able to understand where you are wrong.

    I have provided plenty of info in previous posts. You decided to ignore anything that didn't help your case, read what you wanted to and struggle to not be wrong over and over. All it takes to disprove you is some intelligent logic, not numbers.

    This is becoming a really stupid argument, mainly perpetuated by your unwillingness to read an entire post and actually consider what it might mean to the topic as a whole rather than "omgz it sedz im wrong i have to repost what i said over again".

  20. #60
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    Please show me how i am applying the information from the attack table incorrectly.

    And the argument about it havering the chance to reduce a hit is not valid because i am not arguing the probability of something to happen. I am using your logs and the data that are in this thread to show real metrics on the enchant. I am not arguing what it has the possibility to do, but instead looking at what it is really doing based on the data provided.

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