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Thread: Numbers on Expertise reducing damage.

  1. #1
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    Numbers on Expertise reducing damage.

    OK, I went on a quest today to find some actual numbers on how much damage expertise can save you from and found a whole lotta nothing. So being one who likes to see numbers I took a stab at a theoretical encounter in an attempt to come up with something. Here's a copy of the posts I made on the official forums:

    Assumptions:
    Worst case scenario, all attacks will receive the full 40% bonus.
    A 40% swing speed is functionally the same as a 40% increase in damage to one swing when comparing damage taken over a whole fight.

    Mythical boss Q: hits for 5k, 16% base parry chance, 2.4 attack speed, 3 minute fight
    For simplification of numbers I'm also assuming a 2.4 swing speed on the tank to start.
    Means 75 normal swings (no parry haste) totaling 375k damage
    Q's 16% parry chance means that 12 of your attacks will be parried adding 24k damage
    -total of 399k damage taken

    Add 1% expertise
    15% parry chance means 11.25 parries for an extra 22.5k damage, 397.5k total
    a reduction of 1500 damage or 0.375%



    Ok, Boss Q going against a more traditional tank attacking every 1.6 seconds.
    (3 min fight = 112.5 swings)

    16% parry = 18 parries +36k damage 411k total
    15% parry = 16.875 parries +33,750 damage 408,750 total, a reduction of 0.547%
    14% parry = 15.75 parries +31.5k damage 406,500 total, a reduction of 1.094% (included for comparison, looks like a straight line

    reduction)


    OK, one last set, Boss Q vs tank with 1.6 speed weapon and using a parryable attack 7 out of every 8 global cooldowns.
    112.5 autoswings and 105 actions on the GCD 217.5 parriable attacks.
    (I am just now realizing that the tank in question appears to also be hit capped... lucky them, as long as all the numbers use the same assumptions the basic premise should be accurate)

    16% parry = 34.8 parries, +69600 damage, 444600 total
    15% parry = 32.625 parries, +65250 damage, 444250 total a reduction of 0.978%
    14% parry = 30.45 parries, +60900 damage, 435900 total a reduction of 1.956%

    As I have seen elsewhere the faster you attack the more extra damage you take from parries and the more powerful expertise is as a tool for reducing incoming damage.
    Obviously this is all worst case scenario where the boss is hit capped like the tank and is extremely lucky in their parry timing. Add in a 50% avoidance chance on the tank and you have to cut all the numbers in half.... 'course on the other hand my entire set up could be horribly flawed; I teach music not math and contrary to popular wisdom math has never been a strong suit of mine.
    Farothin of Rexxar <Avaledan>
    Paranoia is just another word for longevity.

  2. #2
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    Just thought of a different way to put it.

    In the second set 16% parry equals and extra 36k damage, divide that out and 1% parry is an increase in damage of 0.6%

    Using the 3rd set we can divide out the numbers and see that 1% parry is a 1.16% increase to damage.

    Looks like it's possible to come up with a simple line graph on attack frequency vs Parry chance. (but that's really beyond me)
    Farothin of Rexxar <Avaledan>
    Paranoia is just another word for longevity.

  3. #3
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    Check this thread on EJ, a simulator was developed to analyse this question. Look for Berthold's posts (they cross two pages).

  4. #4
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    I did read that thread but the numbers generated by the simulator are a little hard to interpret. How exactly does he define 'wipe probability'? I never did see it defined. Also lacking are any exact numbers on how much extra damage parry haste is causing which is what I was looking at. Any attempt to define that practice x increases the chance you'll die by y% would have to include a lot more assumptions than even my rather assumption heavy premise. (things like what kind of healer team is healing you, their haste rating, how good they are at cascading heals.)

    No what I am aiming at here is an analysis of expertise as a mitigation stat and I think after looking at the numbers it's fairly simple. (placed in second post just for clarity)
    Farothin of Rexxar <Avaledan>
    Paranoia is just another word for longevity.

  5. #5
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    Ok, after running a few different attack speeds through my little 3 minute encounter and placing that data on a spread sheet a few things jumped out at me.
    Most obvious was that the numbers grew at a constant rate as speed increased. After I converted from swing speed to attacks per second the whole thing got much simpler.

    (Your attacks per sec) x 0.96 = the percent maximum potential of damage taken per 1% chance by the boss to parry.

    So in encounter #3 there with an attack speed of 0.8276 you have 1.208 attacks every second, times 0.96 = a possible 1.16% increase in damage taken for every 1% chance to parry the boss has.
    Farothin of Rexxar <Avaledan>
    Paranoia is just another word for longevity.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farothin View Post
    So in encounter #3 there with an attack speed of 0.8276 you have 1.208 attacks every second, times 0.96 = a possible 1.16% increase in damage taken for every 1% chance to parry the boss has.
    That sounds right to me.
    Up to 16% damage because it's all before mitigation/avoidance.

    Does seem like a simple and correct way to model it.
    Hmmm... let's see, a DW DK tank (cos he thinks it looks cool), using two 2.6 speed weapons, has therefore 0.769 attacks per second x 0.96 = 0.738 (which in turn is inverse) and finally ... up to 26% increased damage.

    hmm I just confused myself. 26% more damage how often; for duration of fight?

  7. #7
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    Yep, for the duration of the fight.

    so for your example take 1/2.6 x2 (for each weapon) x.96 = 0.74% increase in damage taken from auto attacks. For a more accurate number you also have to add in the abilities on the GCD that are parriable (I have no knowledge about DKs here) but assuming every other GCD is used in a parriable attack you have to add in 1/3 to the (1/2.6*2) before you multiply by the 0.96 so 1.103*0.96= +1.06% per 1% chance the boss has to parry, and by extention 1.06 potential damage reduced by 1% expertise.
    Farothin of Rexxar <Avaledan>
    Paranoia is just another word for longevity.

  8. #8
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    Ok, after figuring the formula I decided to do a little asking around for behavior of tanks that I don't play (DK and paladin) so I could put down some typical numbers for people to peek at.

    After asking around I found that tanks in general are pushing the GCD more often than not, DKs get a break every so often if runes are down at the same time that RP has all been blown but it doesn't sound like that happens terribly often.

    Behavior assumptions:
    Warrior: 7 of every 8 GCDs used in a pariable attack (basicly every othert SS CD has one TC or Demo included)

    Druids: Every GCD used in a parriable attack (correct me if I'm wrong but the only thing they have would be Demo roar)

    DK: 50% use of GCD in a parriable attack (the consensus of the discussion I had was about 50% though it sounds like they clump them together often)

    Paladin: I modeled both with HotR being a normal parry and without because I can not find any definitive data on whether the 'deflect' message that can pop up on that ability can cause parry haste. But this is their only GCD ability that can (but might not) cause parry haste.

    Maximum potential increase in damage taken due to parry haste per 1% chance of the boss to parry:

    Paladin- 0.6 (no HotR parry haste)
    2H DK - 0.64032 (3.0 swing speed weapon)
    Paladin- 0.76032 (HotR can = parry haste)
    Druid - 1.03968
    DWDK - 1.12032 (2x2.4 speed weapons)
    Warrior- 1.15968 (1.6 swing speed)
    fDWDK- 1.51968 (2x 1.6 speed weapons)

    (all numbers are percentages)
    To get data for a typical fight you should be able to multiply the number there times 50% of a bosses chance to parry and get something like a real world expectation. That assumes an even distribution of the 0% to 40% increase to swing speed possible on a hasted attack.
    (So that fDWDK would take an extra 8.36% damage from a boss with an 11% chance to parry while the paladin at the top of the list there would only take an extra 3.3%)
    Edit: for more accurate warrior behavior
    Last edited by Farothin; 12-11-2008 at 08:41 AM.
    Farothin of Rexxar <Avaledan>
    Paranoia is just another word for longevity.

  9. #9
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    I want to thank you for making these threads, as I've been picking up loads of expertise myself and was starting to wonder how best to evaluate it.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farothin View Post
    How exactly does he define 'wipe probability'? I never did see it defined.
    He established a set of healers which he thinks is typical for a raid and then pitted tanks with various attacks per second against bosses with varying parry chance to try and find the likelyhood that the tank will take enough damage over a short enough time that he will die.

    Looking at Expertise in the way you are doing is interesting, but I think that most of the interest in it arises from the same school of thought as effective health in that 'taking less damage' and 'staying alive' aren't the same thing.

  11. #11
    Overall damage reduction is a good thing to look at, but I think what is more important to remember is the need for Expertise in specific fights. A parry can really hurt you with a high damage slow attack. Teron Gorefiend was the big BT example. You could be taking AE damage, on top of large hits, and a hit coming two seconds before it should, when it is hitting you for a large amount of damage, could cause a wipe. Teron was a good fight in many ways, to teach tanks how to gear. Avoidance could save you, but with need to kill him quickly, you had to reach maximum threat, so it was not overly useful because of rage starvation. So, tanks stacked EH to take hits for rage and guard against damage spikes, but a good tank also stacked Expertise to both increase threat and reduce the chance, in this specific fight, of taking a single parry that could wipe the raid.
    Last edited by Bayho; 12-12-2008 at 07:26 AM. Reason: word choice
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  12. #12
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    I understand what you guys are saying and I'm not advocating stacking expertise for the purpose of reducing damage taken. My intent is more filling in the understanding of a stat that seems to be everywhere and has been primarily considered as a threat stat. Lately I had been seeing a lot more talk about it's ability to reduce damage taken but no one seemed to know how much damage we're really talking about with it. I'll admit I was surprised to see how much potential damage can come from parry haste. I was expecting something along the line of 1% or less not the 12% potential increase I'm seeing possible. I figured when I started this project there might be others interested in what I found but the numbers I'm seeing are very interesting to me.
    Farothin of Rexxar <Avaledan>
    Paranoia is just another word for longevity.

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