posted an interesting reply in the Tankadin thread, mentioning the increase in damage taken, because of Parries due to reckoning. Since I had some time on my hands, I decided to figure out increase in number of Parries.
There are two major subjective variables with this math: Avoidance and Weaponspeed. The first is important, because it dictates how often you get hit and therefore how often reckoning would Proc. The latter is important, because it's related to how many chances the boss has to parry and how many recokning charges get used. I have assumed, after looking around a few TC sites, that the chance to have an attack parried is 5% (I'm not confident about this number, if someone has some propper data, It'd be more than happy to change my equations).
For this, I'll be using my gears numbers. Against a level 73 boss, fully buffed, I have 45% avoidance, 55% block (after .6% has been removed from each due to the level difference). I'm also using [item]Continuum Blade[/item] which has a weaponspeed of 1.8s.
My avoidance gives me a 55% chance to take damage, and therefore a 5.5% chance for Reckoning to proc on each strike made by the boss. Most mobs have an attackspeed of 2.0s. This means, I'll have a reckoning proc, just over every 36s (2s/5.5%=36.36s). Since I'm using a relatively quick weapon, I'll use all 4 reckoning charges. Since there's a 5% chance to have an attack parried, I'll have one extra attack parried, on average, every 90seconds than if I didn't have Reckoning.
A general formula:
T is Time between Reckoning incudced Parries
A is Total Avoidance (Miss+Parry+Block, adjusted for a level 73mob)
W is your weapon's speed.
Important Note: if W<2, then assmue that (((W*4)-8)/W)=4
Just as a side note, this is pure therorycraft, and cannot be truely applied to any 'real' situation. It's merely insight into an ability, that we didn't have before. Also, I cannot give an actual damage increase value, as that relies upon how much the parry speeds up the attack (Yet to see any concrete numbers on this) and how much damage the boss actually does.
Hrm, i never realized that by tossing up more attacks against the boss, we increase their parry instances. So why is this new? Did reckoning get changed again?
It's not so much new, but I don't think anyone's done the math. In fact, this is one of the biggest arguments for slow weapons, against flurry type weapons or abilities like Reckoning, and against +attack haste gear. And of course it's a given that everyone except for the tank should be behind the mob in order to minimize parries since those increased attacks will be aimed at the tank. I presume everyone knows about fight done by the guild Juggernaut on Doomhammer where their main tank was the recipient of 2 10k hits in 0.5 seconds thanks to parries?
am I doing something wrong?
And I don't know where the numbers in most of the formula are coming from.
What about the fact that bosses vary in their parry stat?
I think you must've forgottern that 100%=1, so the real number is prolly somewhere closer to T=201.
Just as a note, I mentioned that this is purely TC and has no pratical application. This is true. It's also the reason why you can't rely on Avoidance to save you. Sure, with a large enough sample size, you'll get values extremely close to the ones provided by this math. And even then, the samples wouldn't be a static value, there would be times where a large period goes between Reckoning Induced Parries, or a very short period.
I'll go through and explain what I'm doing in each part of the equation.
It'll be easier if I change it into its indivdual parts, so the equation becomes:
'n' is the period between attacks. As far as I'm aware, bossmobs have a 2.0 attack speed. Also, bosses may have special attacks, but for the sake of simplicity, I left that out.
'x' is the probability that an attack will trigger a Reckoning proc. It's important to note, that 100%=1, not 100. So, 45% avoidance gives a value of .055, not 5.5.
'y' is the number of attacks needed to have an attack parried. As I said in my first post, I wasn't able to find stable numbers for Parry rate, so I used 5%. This value is y=1/[BossParry].
'z' is the average number of extra attacks generated by Reckoning. Just make sure that if (W*4)-8 is negative, you use the value z=4.
Kinda off-topic (still relating to tanking and parries).
Death Knights. One of the things said about them is they can Dual Wield and tank. Thinking about it in the sense of parries, the more you attack the more the mob parries, etc. This would mean that for a tanking Death Knight, DWing would be a bad thing since it would mean a significant increase in the chance to be parried. In fact, since they can tank with a 2H which will be a slow attack speed, it stands to reason that 2H would be the best for tanking since it would minimize parries thus minimizing incoming damage increases from parrying. Minor note: This would be a mostly non-issue outside of raiding, due to the relatively minor increase in damage a parry or two would give, compared to the type of damage some raid bosses do.