The thing that I see you guys focusing on is the effect that dodge has while shield block is in place, and not what happens when the charges of shield block have been consumed and weighing the options there...soooo, I'll do it real quick cause I haven't worked on the math yet. It's important to cover that fact to flesh out the 3rd hit information in its entirety.
Now, first of all, we take the 2% to block standard from above and apply it to the hit table, and you get to see those results twice. Which gives you a 2% on each of the 3 hits. Now, alternately if you do not dodge (which on 2 hits you would have a 4% increased chance to dodge, and thus conserve your shield block) then the 3rd hit looks like (from above):
1-10miss
11-28 parry
29-48 dodge
49-68 block
69-85 hit
86-100 Crush
Now, if you stack the equivalent of the 5% block onto the hit table, the first 2 tables look the same as the 5% block (with shield block) table above. Meaning you gain 0% on the hits while SB is up. Then on the 3rd hit, it looks like:
1-10 miss
11-28 parry
29-46 dodge
47-71 block
72-85 hit
86-100 crush
So in this case you pick up a 3% chance overall to in some way mitigate the crushing blow. So, if we take a look at the 3rd hit tables and break them up by crushing blow versus non crushing blow (note:the part where I factor in chance to have shield block up comes next):
3rd hit w/2% dodge:
10+18+20+20=68% to avoid crushing blow.
15% for a crushing blow.
17% for a normal hit.
3rd hit w/5% block:
10+18+18+25=71% to avoid crushing blow.
15% for a crushing blow.
14% for a normal hit.
So, in this case, you are slightly more likely to avoid the crushing blow on the 3rd hit when making the roll against the hit table itself. This would make block seem to be more advantageous for avoiding 3rd hit crushing on a point for point basis. However, we haven't factored in the increased chance to block the 3rd attack due to dodging the first two. The easiest way to do this is to examine avoidance versus shield block probabilities.
Out of 50 series of 2 attacks (100 attacks total), with 2% additional dodge, I would dodge 2 more attacks (does it ever depress you guys to know that we're scraping for 1/50 odds on most of our stuff?). Now, that means that I have a 2% chance of blocking that 3rd hit because my shield block charges are still intact. So, that brings our final hit Crushing vs not table to:
3rd hit w/2% dodge (including additional shield block):
10+18+20+22=70% to avoid crushing blow.
15% for a crushing blow.
15% for a normal hit.
Hrm...so it actually appears that for a 2% dodge vs 5% block, you come out on top taking block for avoiding the 3rd crushing blow in the midst of it all. But what happens if there's a 4th hit (Parry thrash, for example) before your sb timer comes up? Well...you drop back to the 68% non crushing (due to mitigation) value, and now you're 3% behind shield block for that particular attack.
Now, you could actually split these values up into damage taken to a certain extent (5% to reduce 150% to 100% damage vs 2% to avoid 100% or 150% damage), but I'll leave that math for someone that cares. The goal of this discussion is to ultimately reduce burst damage on a tank through the mitigation of crushing blows, and it appears that the hit tables say that a 5% block vs 2% dodge comparison say the block is the better choice for 3rd hit mitigation and certainly the better choice for 4th hit.
Now, my math might be a little rusty, so please feel free to correct me, but I'm fairly certain the above analysis takes it a step further than "Look at the values when your SB is up!"



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