Discipline Healing Per Mana Chart and Rotation
EDIT, 2/18/13: These calculations were made 2 weeks after MoP's release and are largely irrelevant to current gear levels and content.
Glyph of penance is being used in value calculations. No buffs (no inner fire or inner will) used for calculation. Divine aegis, spirit shell, train of thought, and talents not accounted for. Assumed that inner focus is only used for greater heal or prayer of healing.
15,380 spellpower. 36.73% mastery (4014). 7.30% crit (1069). 4.83% haste (2054). 5772 spirit.
Greater Heal (Inner Focus + 3 Grace) ----------- 10.69
Greater Heal (Inner Focus) --------------------- 8.22
Penance (5 Evangelism [healing] + 3 Grace) ----- 8.17
Penance (5 Evangelism [attacking]) ------------- 7.55
Power Word: Shield (Rapture) ------------------- 6.84
Penance (5 Evangelism [healing]) --------------- 6.29
Heal (3 Grace) --------------------------------- 6.02
Holy Fire (5 Evangelism) ------------------------ 5.78
Renew (Borrowed Time + 3 Grace) -------------- 5.56
Heal ------------------------------------------- 4.63
Renew (3 Grace) ------------------------------- 4.45
Penance --------------------------------------- 4.40
Renew (Borrowed Time) ------------------------ 4.28
Greater Heal (3 Grace) ------------------------- 4.14
Power Word: Shield ---------------------------- 3.60
Renew ----------------------------------------- 3.42
Greater Heal ----------------------------------- 3.19
Holy Fire --------------------------------------- 3.37
Smite (5 Evangelism) --------------------------- 3.29
Flash Heal (3 Grace) ---------------------------- 3.11
Flash Heal -------------------------------------- 2.39
Smite ------------------------------------------ 1.92
NO GEAR, single-target
Greater Heal (Inner Focus + 3 Grace) ----------- 4.54
Greater Heal (Inner Focus) --------------------- 3.49
Penance (5 Evangelism [healing] + 3 Grace) ----- 3.36
Penance (5 Evangelism [attacking]) ------------- 3.10
Penance (5 Evangelism [healing]) --------------- 2.59
Heal (3 Grace) --------------------------------- 2.48
Renew (Borrowed Time + 3 Grace) -------------- 2.29
Heal ------------------------------------------- 1.90
Renew (3 Grace) ------------------------------- 1.83
Penance --------------------------------------- 1.81
Renew (Borrowed Time) ------------------------- 1.76
Greater Heal (3 Grace) -------------------------- 1.70
Renew ----------------------------------------- 1.41
Power Word: Shield (Rapture) ------------------- 1.32
Greater Heal ----------------------------------- 1.31
Power Word: Shield ----------------------------- 1.3
Flash Heal (3 Grace) ---------------------------- 1.28
Flash Heal -------------------------------------- 0.98
Smite (5 Evangelism) ---------------------------- 0.54
Holy Fire (5 Evangelism) ------------------------- 0.43
Smite ------------------------------------------ 0.31
Holy Fire ---------------------------------------- 0.25
Important Notes
Smite remains a bad choice to use for healing, even as gear increases. Use it only if you have to help out with DPS for burn phases and you can spare the mana.
While holy fire is not very efficient without evangelism, it becomes a good atonement heal once evangelism fully stacks. You should use holy fire often enough to maintain 5 stacks of evangelism.
Power word: shield becomes significantly more effective the more spirit you have. If you can proc rapture by breaking the shield, it's our second-most efficient heal and, with inner will and/or enough spirit, our most efficient heal.
Renew is not as bad a spell as it used to be, though it's really only efficient to use if borrowed time or some haste buff putting you into a 5th tick is available. So, after using power word: shield, use renew before using up the borrowed time buff on another spell.
Based on this chart, your basic single-target healing priority would be:
Power word: shield if the target will take enough damage to break it and proc rapture.
Renew while borrowed time is up.
Penance if the target needs it.
Holy fire to maintain evangelism.
Heal otherwise/maintain stacks of grace.
During high damage phases, you would swap out heal for greater heal/inner focus. Alternatively, you could do spirit shell/heal, and if damage is especially high, spirit shell/greater heal. Once spirit shell has worn off, if you still need extra healing, clear your stacks of evangelism for archangel.
For AoE healing, keep prayer of mending up, then use prayer of healing for 5-man groups. For high AoE damage, spirit shell/prayer of healing. If at least 7 targets need healing, use your level 90 talent. Prayer of healing is more efficient for all 5-man content than any of the level 90 talents.
Interesting note about gear scaling
If you compare the no gear chart to the wearing gear chart, you'll notice that, although the values change (the spells become more efficient), the efficiency priority barely changes. Only holy fire (5 evangelism) and power word: shield shift around to any significant degree. It looks like, at least for now, your basic healing rotation will not change regardless of gear.