HOWEVER, if you are concerned about damage taken in the long run, the value of the Block Value wrt TDR increases with increasing CTC. You see this in my paladin guide and in Theck's maths. While warriors find it still extremely hard to hit full CTC outside of shield block, the message is the same. There will be a point at which the ESD is better than the ASD, even without being block-capped the whole time. Yes, there remains a chance that the block will do "nothing", but this chance is largely irrelevant.
Armor is 100% reliable to physical dmg taken, BV is not if you are not capped, so again armor is a guarantee and the BV is not until you are capped