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Anything is possible? Really?

Satorri — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:04:23 GMT

This is a sticky one. Largely it becomes a tautology.

Our concept of what is "possible" is shaped by what we have done, and to an extent what we believe other people have done. In the workings of our mind, you cannot actually disprove anything, only prove, and only then by actually doing.

For example, you cannot tell me you can't fly because you cannot preclude that it cannot happen. You can however, fly, and then know that it is possible.

In the face of uncertainty then, there is no good reason to write anything as "impossible" except to cut yourself off from trying to do so intentionally.

The circle closes here on its own rational extension. However, we can open the door here as well. Is there any reason to believe that anything is not actually achievable?

Is there anything you have seen that represents a real and indelible boundary? Question the walls you think exist, scratch the surface and you can find they're about as impassable as the air.

Moral Invention

Satorri — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:52:43 GMT

I am going to start where we are, which is several tiers into the complexity, and I'll bounce around a bit to explain, but I will aim to move toward the real, unabstracted reality.

We have created society, civilization. Massive, multi-tiered organization of all of the things in the world. This organization is artificial. Arbitrary. All of our sub-systems are as well. A best-guess fit to the world as we experience it through a pin-hole.

One point of interest, as it has arisen everywhere, in each culture, is the concept of morality; to put a fine point on it, right and wrong.

Within the undifferentiated soup, there is no morality, no right and wrong, no good or bad, there is simply the things that happen. In other words, the world exists prior to and without the need of judgment. It is, instead, a requirement of the mind, a requirement of dissection and abstraction that necessitates judgment, differentiation, distinction, and classification.

As we add arbitrary structure to the world, and live lives of abstraction, we start to discover the lack of actual limits that keep us from certain things. Some of these things are easy to accept as reasonable, while others seem to offend the senses, or open dangerous doors that threaten to dissolve our arbitrary constructions. Enter Law, Religion, and Moral Philosophy.

These three tools have their birth in the needs to preserve the structure of our fabricated world of abstraction. I'll use a simple example.

We value money. Money is a system of solidifying value so it can be traded in its own right, a promise note. I have money, you have food I need to survive. I give you money, you give me food. The non-specific nature of money allows you to then use it in whatever form you need it, when you need it. This allows for the more complex system that has developed where people no longer had the goods to barter directly, the result of complex society. Money is therefore important as it allows you to procure the things you need from the people who don't need the other things you have. Money becomes the support system that gives you the *actually* items you need to survive (food being an easy example). Money is important, but it is a solid asset, like food, or anything else. If you need something, what are the *actual* restrictions on getting it? Nothing, in fact. Is there a real world difference between trading for the money, or killing someone and taking there money? Not without the introduction of Law, Religion, and Moral Philosophy. Religion introduces the concept of cosmic consequence. If you do "bad" things, your immortal soul will be damaged, or you will lose something far more valuable in your next life or afterlife. Money is far less important than happily-ever-after/eternity, so there is incentive to not to the "bad" things (killing is often an agreed upon "bad" thing). Law, on the other hand, offers a simple quid pro quo. We've decided these are the "rules," you are not allowed to kill people. We know they're arbitrary, but we're telling you now, if you kill someone, we will kill you (or we will take something else valuable from you), that's the law. Follow the rules or face the consequences. Moral Philosophy, of course, comes as the limpest. Rather than offering "real" consequences, it simply explores the nuance of good and bad, and offers guidance as to what should be done and what shouldn't. The only reprecussions here are typically guilt and propriety, but it is often the root found in the first two (though religion would consider the philosophy subordinate to the religion itself).

This is what I call moral invention. This is the enforcement of ideals that are needed to preserve our abstractions.

Cosmically speaking, is killing a "bad" thing? No. No one even within the above examples will say so unilaterally. Within the law, killing is used as a punishment, a "capital" punishment for crimes committed, and we make a range of judgments about how bad killing is, with allowances for doing it by accident. We certainly do not apply our laws to animals, trying to arrest every lion who hunts and kills a zebra for lunch, nor do we punish humans for killing animals, in most situations. Religions allow for killing in one way or another. Some allow for retirbution and vengeance (though sometimes named more benignly, like law, as "justice"). Some allow for killing of those who are "wrong" about one thing or another, like which god(s) they worship. Few religions have something to say about killing animals, though it is fairly common in every moral philosophy that not just any kind of killing is "ok."

It is this arbitrary nature that makes it easy to identify this as an abstraction, and invention. The immutable truths are just that, unchangeable. The question is, just what *is* actually immutable, and how much of the things we live by are simply accepted, but arbitrary designations?

Setting the stage

Satorri — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:28:15 GMT

Here's my working theory.

All of existence is continuous, always moving, and everything is connected. There are no true barriers, at most there are influences that inhibit or redirect the flow, but in truth these are like a stone blocking the ocean.

In this continuum things simply are. We, as thinking creatures within this existence, distinguish and contrast things as a way to allow our brain to record and learn. Without contrast, without filters, it is extreme over-immersion which is indistinguishable to the limits of our senses. In mental development we learn how to shut things out, ignore things so we can focus on one comprehensible bit at a time. As our mind develops and builds the arbitrary archetypes within existence, it can consider more complex interactions, and composite simple concepts into more complex ones. This is how we develop as small children. There is a flex of sorts to the mind, as we first shut out most things, then as we understand a very small point of focus we can widen the beam of light, so to speak, so that we can view more at once. That said, to understand everything in each moment is to be able to track far more than our mental limits would typically suggest, following all the threads of a giant tapestry, simultaneously, would be a very simple analogue.

To our thinking mind, the world is complex and its interactions very hard to follow. The reality, however, exists before we distinguish, before we create comparison, exclusion, dissection, and differentiation. These are tools of the mind, and no more real than we allow them to be in action.

Recognizing that we only create arbitrary divisions is important to where I will walk from here.

The short and sweet implications are as follows:
1.) Anything is possible
2.) Judgment is artificial
3.) Truly living in the world is an act of being boundless

More will come on these points. =)

Life comes in Flavors!

Satorri — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 17:29:34 GMT

I think about things a lot. As a short explanation, as anyone reading here wouldn't likely know about my meanderings, one of my current foci for meditation is on sensory development. Honing the 5 sentences and the murky ones not well-defined in our modern science/understanding.

To that end I've spent a lot of time focusing on the sensory experience of, well, everything. Looking closely at things, soft focus to take in more and pick out details quickly. Smell, period. Take in the smells of people, appreciate the faintest of odors and the most pungent of smells. Listen carefully, speak softly, and build an appreciation for the simplest elements of sound. Feel everything, you're wrapped in a sensory organ. Savor food, experience the full distance of the flavor don't just swallow it whole.

I've been using taste as an example, as a microcosm (not truly a simple metaphor), as it is one of the few senses that people really are encouraged to use. Though we still don't, not really, not most people.

The fact of the matter is that every sense can have lengthy experiences beyond just a flash. The most carefully crafted foods you can savor for a flavor that travels over the course of minutes, not seconds. The fact that so many never do so, and still more that it's not often 'ok' to stop and do so, does not serve to encourage this practice.

Suffice to say, if you take the time to savor and pay attention, you can taste a world more in every bite than you already likely do. In the same way, the world can be perceived with that sort of depth. People, places, moments in time. Each and every piece has a world of depth that is easily glazed over as we race on to the next moment.

The concept goes farther as well. A question to ask yourself:
To what degree is your world flavored to taste with natural and artificial flavors?

I'll be more specific.

Things in the world have their own elements. They don't require us to have their own experience. This is natural flavor.

We don't often experience the world as it is, instead it is filtered through our mind, through our conscious thought, our carefully constructed filters, and we shape our perceptions in reflection based on our established notions and sensibilities about what is and what should be. This is artificial flavor.

To use a strongly polarized subject to illustrate my point, if you were to meet a child rapist, how good are the odds that you would actually be open to just experiencing them as a person. To enter the conversation without heavy pre-conceived notions about who they are and what they've done? We create context for the world we live in, and sometimes we forget to see the real thing for the expectations or memories that led to the new moment.

Don't misunderstand me, these filters, these spices and flavors have their value, and they have a non-insidious root, but they do distract and reduce our attention from reality. And what's more they can obscure reality if we let it go far enough, if we lose sight of these things for what they are: artificial flavoring. This is where I think we start to actually lose out on life, when we cease to experience life as we live it and instead start dwelling within the world we expect.

A thought to take away from this:
There are no repeat experiences. Each moment, each thing you encounter, every person is unique, in each and every moment you encounter them. Things only become "repeated" or "redundant" or "been-there-done-that" when we stop paying attention and let our brain tell us it's all been done.

If you need a quality demonstration, take a puppy for a walk...

Archive of Links

Satorri — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 13:21:39 GMT

http://www.tankspot.com/forums/f14/5...d-tanking.html
http://www.tankspot.com/forums/f14/5...evolution.html
http://www.tankspot.com/forums/f14/5...-survival.html
http://www.tankspot.com/forums/f14/5...s-satorri.html

[archive] Tank Survival Breakdown (base)

Satorri — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 16:55:49 GMT

So after playing with chardev.org and having some wonky errors with a couple of the sample characters, I tried Rawr, and I'm liking the numbers I'm getting there. I came up with the following fully raid buffed stats. I will use the following breakdown to create a table including the final net gain from raid buffs. The buffs included are as follows and assumed equal for all tanks:

Stoneblood Flask, Well Fed buff (I just used Fish Feast, each tank would likely use something different depending on what they wanted, hit, exp, agi, strength, etc), Prayer of Fortitude, Gift of the Wild, Blessings of Kings, Sanctuary, and Might, Strength of Earth/Horn of Winter, Commanding Shout, Devotion Aura, Scorpid Sting/Insect Swarm, and a de-haste (Tclap, Frost Fever, JotJ, Infected Wound). AP reducing abilities will be left out because I'm not 100% on how to apply it correctly.

Here are the raw stats first:

Code:

                      Warrior       Paladin         Death Knight       Druid
Health                 46,518        47,911           49,685          53,469
Armor                  28,734        29,463           30,829          31,924
Miss                    9.0%          8.6%             9.1%            7.6%
Dodge                  30.00%        27.92%           29.49%          48.95%
Parry                  19.19%        18.19%           17.49%           0.0%
Block (%)              17.64%        14.48%            0.0%           40.30%
Block (V)              1,400         1,484              0             1,665
==============================================================================
Armor Rdx (%)          63.33%        63.91%           64.95%          65.74%
Total Avoidance        61.16%        57.71%           59.08%          59.55%
Total Dmg Rdx          12.7%         14.2%            12.5%           14.6%

These are the values I want to use for some work going forward, so I'll keep them here for posterity. I want to build some more practical illustrations of boss survivability, even if it loses the human factor (which is one of the most important and should have nothing to do with how the classes are laid out in game mechanics).

Again, for our first example, we have a boss doing melee swings only. He hits for 60,000 before mitigation on a 2.0 base swing timer.

Small stuff adjusting from the base above. The protadin's Redoubt will be averaged out into his average block chance (+12.5% = 26.98), his tome will also be factored in assuming 100% Holy Shield uptime (+272 bv = 1756). The warrior's block value will be adjusted using crit chance to create an average block value (final bv with 30% crit chance = 1820). The DK's relic is assumed at about a 75% uptime (so average of +1.62% dodge). Again, the Bear block numbers above are derived from the Bear's crit chance, swing speed, and the swing speed of the boss to get an average factor per swing.

Using our previous system, the survival pie breaks down like this:

Warrior (avg ilvl = 227.8)

Code:

                  Factor      iDPS      % rdx
Unmitigated      60k/2.0s     30,000     0.0%
Atk Spd Rdx      60k/2.4s     25,000    16.7%
Avoidance         61.16%       9,710    51.0%
Armor Rdx         63.33%       3,561    20.5%
Misc Dmg Rdx      12.70%       3,109    1.51%
Block Rdx         827/sw       2,975    0.45%
===============================================
Total Inc      18.4k/2.4s      2,975    90.1%
Hit String     38.84%(1)   15.09%(2)   5.86%(3)
Health            46,518

Paladin (avg ilvl = 225.2)

Code:

                  Factor      iDPS      % rdx
Unmitigated      60k/2.0s     30,000     0.0%
Atk Spd Rdx      60k/2.4s     25,000    16.7%
Avoidance         57.71%      10,573    48.1%
Armor Rdx         63.91%       3,816    22.5%
Misc Dmg Rdx      14.20%       3,274    1.81%
Block Rdx         1120/sw       3,076    0.66%
===============================================
Total Inc      17.5k/2.4s      3,076    89.7%
Hit String     42.29%(1)   17.88%(2)   7.56%(3)
Health            47,911

Death Knight (avg ilvl = 222.5)

Code:

                  Factor      iDPS      % rdx
Unmitigated      60k/2.0s     30,000     0.0%
Atk Spd Rdx      60k/2.4s     25,000    16.7%
Avoidance         60.70%       9,825    50.6%
Armor Rdx         64.95%       3,444    21.3%
Misc Dmg Rdx      12.50%       3,014    1.44%
Block Rdx           0/sw       3,014    0.0%
===============================================
Total Inc      18.4k/2.4s      3,014    90.0%
Hit String     39.30%(1)   15.44%(2)   6.07%(3)
Health            49,685

Druid (avg ilvl = 223.7)

Code:

                  Factor      iDPS      % rdx
Unmitigated      60k/2.0s     30,000     0.0%
Atk Spd Rdx      60k/2.4s     25,000    16.7%
Avoidance         59.55%      10,113    49.6%
Armor Rdx         65.74%       3,465    22.2%
Misc Dmg Rdx      14.60%       2,959    1.69%
Block Rdx        1659/sw       2,679    0.17%
===============================================
Total Inc      15.9k/2.4s      2,679    91.1%
Hit String     40.45%(1)   16.36%(2)   6.62%(3)
Health            53,469

More will come with time, particularly as I develop new metrics and find an effective way to add other encounter mechanics to this consideration. For those who think this is too reductive to be meaningful, consider for a moment that in a given night in Ulduar 25, the above breakdown applies to 65-75% of your incoming damage depending on what fights you're doing and what gear/buffs you use for mitigation of and resistance to magic effects.

[archive] Practical Survival

Satorri — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:29:13 GMT

There is a LOT of talk about survival, of course, it's a tanking forum! There are a great many great minds here, and still more followers who are not interested in doing out the crazy math themselves, they're looking for people to boil it down and tell them what they *need* to know. I want to present the information concisely, but in detail, those who are already fluent in these details, bear with me in the early sections.

Preface: Tanking is an act of balancing need. You need to balance survival with threat, while meeting the needs of both. Too little threat and you could be unkillable, it won't matter. Too little survivability and you can have all the threat in the world and you'll just get steamrolled by anything you pick up.

================================================== ====
Within survival there are several places we get values from. I want to start from as simple and general as I can manage, and progress to a more specific breakdown of stats, hopefully with a mind for being plainly accessible to anyone, regardless of aptitude with math, logic, or probability.
================================================== ====

What we're up against:
In the simplest terms we're taking damage of one of two types, with some degree of frequency: Physical damage and Magic damage. We can also split the form of delivery into direct damage, or damage over time (physical DoT's are usually called bleeds).

There are two ways we handle incoming damage: we avoid it or we reduce (mitigate) it. So, there are 3 general pools that we manage to do this: health, mitigation, avoidance.

Health
This is, plainly, your lifespan. It will be drained when you take damage, and filled when you are healed. When it hits zero, you are dead. A dead tank holds no threat and saves no lives. This is a simple number scale value, and we only affect it's maximum limit. The two ways we do this is with stamina from gear and buffs, and multipliers from talents and effects that will buff our stamina or our health directly. (Note: this is not the same as effective health, that is a more complex concept, I'll discuss later).

Mitigation
Anything that reduces the damage taken falls into this category. For physical damage, we rely on Armor primarily. We also get stances, buffs, and talents that will reduce all or specific types of damage by a flat percentage. Resistance functions as a sort of armor against the specified school of magic, though it also affects a chance for large chunk percentage-based reduction of that kind of magic. Shield Block is a mechanism that belongs in this category, it provides a chance to reduce incoming physical hits by a set amount based on your gear.

Avoidance
Avoidance includes anything that allows you to not take damage in its entirety. Monsters can miss you when they attack with magic or physical strikes, you can also dodge incoming strikes, or parry them. These are the major forms of avoidance. Generally, there are no forms of dodge or parry against magic damage alone, though some magic damage sources are linked to avoidable attacks. This avoidance is achieved through defense rating/skill, dodge and parry ratings, and agility.

================================================== ====
Most above this point is fairly common knowledge, but application is rather more difficult. In reality, our survival is compound of all of these elements working together, each in their part. So I want to discuss where each element fits. The following section will build composites towards a more encompassing picture.
================================================== ====

Effective Health / Guaranteed Survival
The concept is very simple, in the absence of all random possibility, bad luck, random generated outcomes, and anything else that could happen, it is valuable to know what will be unaffected in your survival tools. This value can be a combination of elements, but the most simple an inalienable is the combination of static mitigation (armor, resistance, % damage reduction) and health.

As a simple illustration:

Quote:

You are tanking Boss X. He hits for 50,000 damage every 2 seconds. You have enough armor to give you 60% damage reduction, your stance and talents give you 10% damage reduction to all sources, and you have 35,000 health. No matter of where you stand, how you position, whether you are stunned, knocked down, afk, or offline, these values will remain in effect.

After armor (50,000 becomes 20,000) and stance/talents the boss will hit you for 18,000 damage every 2 seconds. You will survive one hit. If you do not receive healing, or access non-static protections (read: everything else listed above), you will die to the next hit.

In terms of Effective Health, you could say you have 97,222 health to face against the boss's unmitigated damage.

The size of the hits being taken will create a jagged steppe-plateau value gained from adding health. In the above example, if you added 2,000 more health, you would survive that second hit, just barely. But if you added 2,000 more health after that, it would make no difference.

Functionality of Avoidance
Avoidance provides a chance for you to avoid incoming damage completely. Unlike armor or static damage reduction this has three conditions that can limit its function:

1.) Positioning = a tank cannot dodge, parry, or block (though not avoidance it is worth noting here) any attacks that come from behind. Ideally you will position everything you are tanking in front of you, but there are times where things will end up behind you, even for a moment.

2.) Status Changes = when you are stunned, incapacitated, slept, knocked down, or when you are casting a spell, you cannot dodge, parry, or block.

3.) Random Chance = At best, you have only a chance to avoid incoming hits. This is represented in the percentage values on your character sheet.

Note: while the first two points illustrate where you cannot dodge or parry, you can still be missed, as that is a function of the target's ability to hit you, and does not require your involvement.

So, the practical function of avoidance is to occasionally interrupt the stream of damage that you take to allow your healers some time to catch up or pause in their own casts for efficiency sake. In order to gauge the value of avoidance, it is worth applying simple probability to find out how it translates into the chance to be hit more than once in a row.

Quote:

The formula for this is: Chance to be hit X times in a row = (Chance to be hit once)^X

For a quick general check, find the closest value to your total avoidance value (dodge+parry+miss) on the table below:

Code:

        (in a row)  
Avoidance   1 hit   2 hits   3 hits   4 hits  
  20.00%    80.00%   64.00%   51.20%  40.96%  
  25.00%    75.00%   56.25%   42.19%  31.64% 
  30.00%    70.00%   49.00%   34.30%  24.01%  
  35.00%    65.00%   42.25%   27.46%  17.85%  
  40.00%    60.00%   36.00%   21.60%  12.96%  
  45.00%    55.00%   30.25%   16.64%  9.15%  
  50.00%    50.00%   25.00%   12.50%  6.25%  
  55.00%    45.00%   20.25%   9.11%   4.10%  
  60.00%    40.00%   16.00%   6.40%   2.56%  
  65.00%    35.00%   12.25%   4.29%   1.50%  
  70.00%    30.00%   9.00%    2.70%   0.81%  
  75.00%    25.00%   6.25%    1.56%   0.39%  
  80.00%    20.00%   4.00%    0.80%   0.16%  
  85.00%    15.00%   2.25%    0.34%   0.05%  
  90.00%    10.00%   1.00%    0.10%   0.01%  
  95.00%    5.00%    0.25%    0.01%   0.00%

Your dodge and parry chances will be approximately what they appear as on your character sheet (-0.2% per level the target is above you, bosses count as level 83, so -0.6% off each). The easiest way to find your miss chance is to use an addon such as TankPoints, however for a tank at the defense cap it will be approximately 9% after diminishing returns.

I will not dig into the deep scary math of diminishing returns to translate ratings into avoidance percentages, but there are 2 simple points to understand how this affects your survival gained from gear:

1.) Health has a linear value for your survival, meaning you simply add or subtract directly. Bigger damage means you die faster, simple as that. Armor and Avoidance deal with a percentage reduction. As that percentage approaches 100% (complete reduction to 0) each percentage increase will become more powerful in terms of direct survival. I'll use a big jump for simple illustration.

Quote:

If a boss swing, before mitigation, is 50,000 damage, and your armor reduces that by 40%, you will take 30,000 damage per swing. If you up your armor to reduce that damage by 50%, you now take 25,000 damage each swing or a 17% increase in the reduction. If you then increase it again to now by 60% reduction, each swing now does only 20,000 damage, so from 50% this is now a 20% improvement in damage reduction.
Un-condensed:

Code:

Mitigation %     Boss Hit     Damage Reduction Change
    40%           30,000                 
    50%           25,000                -17%
    60%           20,000                -20%

Because of this, both armor and avoidance are designed to make that increase in damage reduction scale linearly with rating, rather than making the percentage scale linearly. Contrary to some small circle's beliefs, diminishing returns does not make avoidance somehow weaker than pure health, it is the only thing that keeps it on par.

2.) Two features determine the relative gain from each avoidance rating: the base exchange rate (X parry rating = Y% parry) and the cap to which the stat diminishes (you cannot have more than 88% dodge, in fact you can never reach that value). Dodge's cap for tanks is ~88% (slightly different for Druids) while Parry's cap is ~47%. As of patch 3.2 the base exchange rate for the two is the same, so it is only the lower cap that keeps Parry rating from giving the same value as Dodge rating.

When in doubt, just try on the gear and see what happens. Alternately, addons like TankPoints provide tools to try plugging in what would happen if you added, say, 16 more dodge rating or 16 parry rating.

================================================== ======

The Big Picture

In order to see how all the elements come together, I will first describe in simple points, then try to illustrate in a few different examples, how the three elements come together.

Health = is what creates your potential for soaking damage
Mitigation = is what reduces the severity of hits to make your health go farther. (armor, passive reduction %, resistance, block)
Avoidance = is what reduces the frequency of damage taken, creating gaps for healers to catch up. (dodge, parry, miss)

If you are a visual sort of person, imagine incoming damage on a chart. Each successful hit that lands is a peak. Avoidance makes the peaks fewer and more frequently spaced out. Mitigation makes the peaks shorter uniformly, and block will make some of the peaks shorter. In terms of survival relative to your health, it will take larger peaks, closer together, to kill you, and the more health you have the larger/more peaks you can survive. See the diagrams below:

When the total of the peaks in a certain time period surpass your health plus the heals in the same time period, you die. Mitigation reduces each peak, block reduces some of the peaks by more still, and avoidance reduces the amount of peaks grouped together that you typically see.

[archive] Relative Value of Block

Satorri — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:23:22 GMT

1455 4892

===============================

I pulled data from the Armory from 4 tanks in heavy late Ulduar gear who's gear selection/gemming/enchanting I trust to be top notch. There's not much I can do for the fact that they all likely have multiple gear setups for different situations, but I'll trust that they're wearing a reasonably balanced set for the stats I'm taking (they look like it). I won't disclose names, but they will be my representatives for the 4 classes. Here are the base stats presented, as above, without raid buffs:

Warrior:
35,106 Health
25,350 Armor
28.47% Dodge+19.31% Parry+9.40% Miss = 57.18% total avoidance
10% dmg rdx from Def Stance
19.83% Block Chance + (1175 block value + 30% chance to double block value when blocking) = 1528 crit adj avg block value

Paladin:
36,969 Health
26,082 Armor
25.08% Dodge+18.79% Parry+9.00% Miss = 52.87% total avoidance
6% dmg rdx (Righteous Fury) + 3% dmg rdx (SotT) + 3% (Glyph of Divine Plea) = 11.56% dmg rdx
15.08% Block Chance + 1464 block value + 12.5% block chance (Redoubt)
(bv assumes 100% uptime of Holy Shield to keep Tome buff, additional chance ideal procs on Redoubt reaching about 42% uptime)

Death Knight:
37,121 Health (in pres)
27,436 Armor
29.48% Dodge+16.89% Parry+9.09% Miss = 55.46% total avoidance
5% dmg rdx (Frost Pres) + 5% dmg rdx (Blade Barrier) = 9.75% dmg rdx
(Blade Barrier assumed 100% uptime, avoidance includes relic averaging ~75% uptime)

Bear:
37,937 Health (in shift)
27,740 Armor
40.07% Dodge+5.40% Miss = 45.47% total avoidance
12% dmg rdx (Bear Talented)
41% "Block" chance + 1193 "block" value
("block" chance is derived from attack speed and crit chance [26.22%], and block value is flat from AP [4773])

================================================== ======
**disclaimer: remember this is before raid buffs which will effect different classes differently, and not all tanks have the same buffs available. This is also not meant to be a class comparison, the 4 tanks' gear is not identical in level. This is just an example with real numbers from each of the classes.**

Warrior Tank Breakdown (avg ilvl = 227.8):

Quote:

25,350 Armor (60.38% dmg reduction)
57.18% total Avoidance
10% Dmg Rdx (stance)
19.83% Block Chance + 1528 block value = 708 avg block/swing

Survival Breakdown:
60k per 2.0 sec = 30k idps (base value)
Avoidance = 57.18% swings do 0 dmg = 12846 idps (57.2% rdx)
Armor = 60.38% rdx of dmg/swing = 5090 idps (25.9% rdx)
Stance/Buff = 10.0% rdx of dmg/swing = 4581 idps (1.7% rdx)
Block = 708 dmg rdx avg per swing = 4429 idps (0.51% rdx)
Final iDPS: 4429
total reduction: 85.2%
Chance to be hit: 18.3% (twice), 7.9%(thrice)

Paladin Tank Breakdown (avg ilvl = 225.2):

Quote:

26,082 Armor (61.06% dmg reduction)
52.87% total Avoidance
11.56% Dmg Rdx (stance)
27.58% Block Chance + 1464 block value = 857 avg block/swing

Survival Breakdown:
60k per 2.0 sec = 30k idps (base value)
Avoidance = 52.87% swings do 0 dmg = 14139 idps (52.9% rdx)
Armor = 61.06% rdx of dmg/swing = 5506 idps (28.8% rdx)
Stance/Buff = 11.56% rdx of dmg/swing = 4869 idps (2.1% rdx)
Block = 857 dmg rdx avg per swing = 4667 idps (0.67% rdx)
Final iDPS: 4667
total reduction: 84.4%
Chance to be hit: 22.2% (twice), 10.5%(thrice)

Death Knight (Blood) Tank Breakdown (avg ilvl = 222.5):

Quote:

27,436 Armor (62.25% dmg reduction)
55.46% total Avoidance
9.75% Dmg Rdx (stance)

Survival Breakdown:
60k per 2.0 sec = 30k idps (base value)
Avoidance = 55.46% swings do 0 dmg = 13362 idps (55.5% rdx)
Armor = 62.25% rdx of dmg/swing = 5044 idps (27.7% rdx)
Stance/Buff = 9.75% rdx of dmg/swing = 4552 idps (1.6% rdx)
Block = 0 dmg rdx avg per swing = 4552 idps (0% rdx)
Final iDPS: 4552
total reduction: 84.8%
Chance to be hit: 19.8% (twice), 8.8%(thrice)

Bear Tank Breakdown (avg ilvl = 223.7):

Quote:

28,323 Armor (63.00% dmg reduction)
51.53% total Avoidance
12.00% Dmg Rdx (stance)
19.20% Block Chance + 1206 block value = 479 avg block/swing

Survival Breakdown:
60k per 2.0 sec = 30k idps (base value)
Avoidance = 51.53% swings do 0 dmg = 14541 idps (51.5% rdx)
Armor = 63.00% rdx of dmg/swing = 5380 idps (30.5% rdx)
Stance/Buff = 12.00% rdx of dmg/swing = 4734 idps (2.2% rdx)
Block = 479 dmg rdx avg per swing = 4618 idps (0.44% rdx)
Final iDPS: 4618
total reduction: 84.6%
Chance to be hit: 29.7% (twice), 16.2%(thrice)

*I've added average item level for each tank so that aspect isn't blind, though do note that some of the most ideal items available may be below other iLvls, such as the Bloody Seal trinket from Yogg10.

Osyras' Build Shop for 3.1!

Satorri — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:24:28 GMT

(Long live my favorite Bear, Sheal!)

So, I wanted to post up because I've been playing around with this a lot. Really this is just a bookmarking of my current thinking, but on the chance other people would find it interesting, or I could encourage others to offer up their upcoming designs with the same sort of explication, I wanted to make it public.

Osyras Blood Tanking Spec v08

Here is my most recent spec, it's very close to my previous iterations but I've made a few refining swaps. For those who didn't follow the thread hopping development, my original interest was a meat shield Blood-based spec (since we're losing avoidance and gaining mitigation I think it will be rather easier than it was previously), but with boosted aoe possibilities from Unholy. Originally I went down to UB getting Necrosis on the way which is not at all points wasted. I did discover though that UB is unfortunately pretty weak without the supporting effects in deeper Unholy (though having someone else applying the +13% spell dmg buff would help). Necrosis is nice, though it precludes B-G which I'm enjoying a bit more now.

The current state of the spec is in a bit of a balance. I've opted not to take some of the more mitigation-oriented survival tools in Spell Deflection and WotN. Spell Deflection I may still take, especially looking at some of the major spell dmg functions in Ulduar, the real test will be how many of those are avoidable and what sort of damage reduction I can really pull out of that talent. Will of the Necropolis, after a bit of math, has gone in my trash bin. It's decent enough as a clutch save, but it lost a lot of its continual mitigation value when it got a 15 sec CD. I maintain that I want to see it changed to a strict Ardent Defender sort of value, 15% dmg reduction when you are at or below 35% health, straight and simple. Imagine the worst case scenario, you are taking 25k hits (which won't actually take me below the 35% threshold from full with raid buffs) that are triggering the reduction, and you're taking them regularly enough that you get the proc, it will represent 15k dmg saved per minute, which is great, for sure. However, with spot on healers (which they'll need to be if you're taking that much damage) anything less will not really be triggering the effect. Instead the survival buffs from talents in this spec are built around the self-healing which actually has almost scary potential (on non-instance tests I could push upwards of 400 hps average for fights with no buffs but my own HoW and not using Mark of Blood which is the Bazooka in the arsenal).

So, some of the key features and synergistic constructions:
Basic Tools:

I never leave out Anticipation, Toughness, and Blade Barrier (it may not be 10% parry, but 5% mitigation is serious value)
Imp IT is no longer much to look at for threat buffing IT, especially as Blood, but dropping it would be a negotiation with my tanking team since no one can apply the 20% de-haste as effectively or maintain it as easily.
Bladed Armor is non-negotiable for my builds. 800 AP for 5 talent pts? Why would I not take that?!

Blood-centicity:
The style of my build is build around single rune spam.

Glyph of Disease with Epidemic allows me to set diseases on one target at the beginning of the fight then maintain them with a single Pestilence once every 18-20 secs, in this style that's not at all an issue since I don't rely on FU pairs other than to switch them to death runes with DS. Imp IT makes FF a quality asset to all the tanks/heals, and both diseases tick reasonably while buffing HS/BB spam delightfully.
In tests with no buffs but HoW, DS hits for about 1400-1500 depending on buffs up and RP levels (glyphed) and heals for about half again as much (2.2-2.4k non-crit) and is what I use to convert FU pairs. I usually keep both FU pairs as death runes since I don't re-apply diseases with IT/PS. I'd love to see DS scale with total health but that could be a bit too much, I like the value as it is. It's better threat than Oblit provided I get the full heal, but it's not a waste either and not digging for Annihilation has given me more avenues for other buffs and foci.
HS is the key beauty to this build. It hits for the same or slightly more than DS in the same tests on a single target (~1500-1700 depending on procs), but for half the cost. Again, only buffed with HoW it has a ~22% crit rate in my tanking gear, and when it hits two targets its damage is silly. Tanking two things I can build about 50% of my main target threat on the off-target without switching (though I do, of course to even that out) using only a HS spam rotation.
AoE threat is strong, but I've been playing with an interesting dynamic. BB hits (HoW only) for about 800-1k dmg with both diseases up, and just BB spamming into the crowd rather than using HS, can put delightful amounts of threat on large groups, especially paired with DnD and constant diseases. That said, on large groups of lvl 80 ghouls (about 15 at a time) in Icecrown BB spam (no DnD) added up to about 2600 dps, where as switch-target HS spam pushed upwards of 3600 dps on the same group and is easy to put well-rounded threat though not as uniformly (I highly recommend, rather than tab targeting, that you show over-head health bars and selectively target the mobs with the most health switching every strike or every other). I'm thinking for very large pulls the best method may be DnD, PS/IT, Pest <> then DS, DS, BB, BB and commence railing the HS spam while swapping targets. Corpse Explosion (hitting for ~1-1.2k, HoW only) is a great buff to aoe threat as a use for the RP, and the spec build fine RP all on its own with the single rune spam.
Crit dependent in a tank build?! I've done a lot of gauging and the +crit % talents make a huge value here. Particularly Subversion with HS spam. That said, I usually get 2-3 stacks of Bloody Vengeance on my first full rune set, so the baseline damage buff is pushing nicely. If you don't know what I mean by crit-dependent this build uses Bloody Vengeance with Subversion, Imp DS, and Dark Conviction, to proc and maintain 9% increased physical dmg (HS, RS, melee, and DS usually in that order consituting about 70-80% of total single target threat on shorter fights). With +5% melee and spell crit, and +3% all crit elsewhere, plus Kings, GotW, and food buffs this build will do dangerous things with those crit effects.
Rune Strike is still a major tool and big threat factor and though I've pushed heavy amounts of health in my gear setup, I'm still rocking just over 60% avoidance on the sheet (RIP Blade Barrier parry). Bloody Vengeance and Blood-gorged buff RS to silly degrees (29% in the best cases) and it does more damage than ever, enough so that I'm tempted to replace glyph of Vamp Blood with glyph of RS if I didn't feel I wanted to squeeze out that survival.
The use of almost entirely melee tools makes this build very light on Hit dependency, though it benefits very well from expertise (convenient given my current tank gear). The buff to armor pen and the change to Blood-gorged are going to work terribly well with full stacks of sunder and FF applied!
This build sports major self-buffing for both stamina, strength, and AP. +6% stamina adds nicely to health stacking. Compounding +8% Strength used with HoW(/Strength of Earth) adds up to a delightful amount of AP, compounded with Bladed Armor and with +10% AP (which can be applied otherwise by an enhance shaman if you have one), makes for fantastic threat buffing. All of these combine for fine gear scaling. In my most recent tests I had 3600 AP with only HoW and no Abom's Might proc (+10%), with raid buffs this is going to be a very big number.
Self-healing tools are the backbone of survival on this build. Imp Blood Pres, Gift of the Naaru (thank you racial being instant cast), DS heals, Imp Rune Tap, and Mark of Blood are very powerful tools summed up, and basically have escalating value in that order depending on use. The total incoming health along with Vamp Blood's bonus to healing and the massive health pool make for a very survivable tank, though mitigation may not be as strong as Frost or Unholy. Generously used IBF will be nice to take the edge off otherwise.

Recent Changes and considerations:
So, one of the major changes I did was to drop Ravenous Dead. This was actually a little tough to do, but the net effect was better. I may revisit this down the road in Ulduar gear with the heftier Strength levels, but it represented only the loss of about 20 ap per point and a negligible amount of parry. It was exchanged for additional tools like the last point of Blood-Gorged that showed a distinct increase in total damage.

Hysteria is an ability I'm on the fence on. On one hand it allows me to get a big boost of threat when I need it, though it needs to be used carefully as it has a big cost with a tank who stacks huge health. On fights where the healing is less strained, or used carefully with Vamp Blood it can actually pay for itself (20% increased dmg paired with 35% increased heals means Imp Blood Pres and DS will be kicking double buffs). At that, it's a double threat buff for making it easier for your Imp Blood Pres to tick for additional threat while increasing that healing for still more healing threat. It definitely needs to be used carefully, and when I don't feel like I could safely use it on myself it turns into a great raid buff for a choice kitty, warrior, or rogue. With the changes to enrage effects, it will require very careful communication and application though.

I had a long arduous back and forth considering Imp Blood Pres vs finishing Sudden Doom. Sudden Doom is in an odd trade off from where it is pre-3.1. Pre-3.1 it has a lovely synergy with guaranteeing Bloody Vengeance stacks, but it has the unfortunate requirement of slipping a CD into a single rune spam rotation which leaves very few rune blackouts for RP dumping let alone free DCs (though they are absolutely worth it). The trade makes them free still and no longer require space in your rotation, BUT they no longer crit for that added bonus, nor can you choose what to pelt with that free crit, it auto-targets your main target (if only the cleave could proc it on the second target, I'm highly certain it is a proc on cast, though, not on hit, meaning you don't get a double chance when cleaving). The end result is that Sudden Doom is smack on its budget of about 1% increase to my total damage per point (DC hits for about 1200 in my build with only HoW). This buff is nice for being a bit bursty, and it has no conditions it will always work and apply. Imp Blood Pres on the other hand, is a limited situation tool. The healing is relatively small, both in magnitude and in overall averages. If I am pulling 2k dps, it is 80 hps, which is almost negligible. To get the tiny buff to threat, or the additional health you need to not have full health, which is also limited in available application. However, the value of this talent is as a quiet health buff slipped into the cracks. The small size of the healing ticks actually works in your favor as it slips into the cracks even when your health isn't quite full. I'm also generally more concerned about buffing survival in this build than threat, but this talent offers a small gain to both. I may change my mind on this one later, but it is actually looking to be a nice value and of versatile application.

Glyph Selections:
Minor glyphs are a fairly minor consideration. The only ones I particularly care for while tanking are Blood Tap, HoW, Pestilence, and Corpse Explosion. Blood Tap is non-negotiable as a tank for me, it's an easy way to reduce dmg taken as I use Blood Tap constantly. HoW is handy because it allows me to space out re-applications more liberally when I'm the one buffing it, it also allows me to leave the buff on people not in range to rebuff longer, though neither of these is vitally important and 2 min only affects rebuffing not between fights when dealing with a boss. Pestilence is quality for matters of trash, but limited in the fact that it only saves you if mobs are farther than 10 yrds but less than 15 yrds away. For that reason I tend to opt out of the glyph in favor of the others because if they aren't in close range for my Pest I have other things I need to fix. The choice is between Pest and CE glyphs. CE has been a fun glyph since CE got its damage suped up. That said, the times when CE actually kills something is not frequent, but when it does it can be a nice little damage boost. I may go back on the switch to CE but for now I'll start with that.

Major Glyphs have a LOT more options, so it's a matter of best choices, here are the considerations:

DS = this is worth an extra 200-400 more damage on each DS. Since I'm using 2 DS on every other rune set, and I use it occasionally functionally (and it's a large increase to the heal through the damage), this is a pretty strong contender.
Vamp Blood = this is the one survival glyph that remains. IBF is no longer choice for tanks, though I didn't bother with it before. 30 sec out of 2 min isn't 30 sec out of 1 min, but it is still something. 30 sec of increased health and incoming heals is still a strong value.
Disease = this is non-negotiable with this build. 1 cast with any of the available runes (6 possible runes on even sets, 2 on odd) to refresh all the diseases on every target. With a build focused on single rune spending this represents one more HS on every 21 sec interval and never having to use IT/PS instead of DS, which is definitely worth the trade.
RS = this build hits harder RS's than any other, and RS is already the largest source of threat with most any build in any situation where you are the main target of the boss or more than a couple targets in aoe. 10% more crit could be a pretty serious threat buff, though it is not a survival buff like Vamp Blood, and DS has double duty value.
DnD = this is a nice value and is terribly tempting, but for two crucial details: it is aoe-centric and using it gimps the HS spam tactic by consuming 3 runes if it is used too frequently, and it does not get the extended spell dmg bonus from deep Unholy to maximize this bonus.
Rune Tap = this is another one that is tempting. It is a nice threat bonus when the heal lands, the 2% increase on myself is nice, though not overwhelming. The real thing is it is limited contingency and with the other strong contenders it slips from the top 3.
IT = this is weak for this build, extra RP doesn't have much application beyond CE spam in trash, as DC is only worth using as an ancillary benefit, there's not much good in feeding for more DCs. RS never comes up short because of the single rune spam providing a constant in-flow. This build also uses IT once per fight with glyph of disease.
PS = the damage may be buffed, but it's still small for this build, and as with IT, PS is used once per fight with glyph of disease.
HS = the slow is a very meager value in PvE, and may actually not even work on some situations where it might be most valuable.

The only major glyph that is under consideration will be DS vs RS. If at any point I find that DS is becoming a non-factor in incoming heals, I may switch to RS for the threat buff.

To those interested I did only a few different tests by myself. I took on 1, 2, or 3 level 82 elite giants in Icecrown to test harder hitting small group effects. Incidentally with strategic use of healing moves, I didn't even need to use Gift of the Naaru or Rune Tap with less than 3, Imp Blood Pres and DS were enough to fill the loss of health. For testing aoe and generally test the survival skills, I went into the Icecrown pit where there are high numbers of ghouls dappled with casters and 80 elite giants. I would round up 3-6 groups of 3-4 plus the occasional single elite. The largest groups required regular use of Rune Tap, Vamp Blood, and even the occasional DS for functional healing, but overall the damage was reasonably absorbed, and the damage output went up remarkably with more mobs. Some quick math, as I'm thinking about it:

BB does we'll average 950 dmg on each target. HS does 1800 on 2 targets, both with crit adjusted averages. We'll assume, for simplicity, that both will increase to the same degree with raid buffs, though I suspect HS may fair better. Both moves have the same cost, so we'll leave out the other factors related to rune spending. HS will do 3600 dmg every swing regardless of number of mobs, and will proc Abom's Might and Sudden Doom. We'll leave out Abom's Might since I expect to always have the buff without applying it myself. Sudden Doom, with only 1 pt, is a 5% chance for 1200 more dmg per swing, we'll average that out to 60 more dmg per cast, for a grand total of 3660. So, with 2-3 targets there is no competition, HS will win easily for total and for spread damage. On 4 targets BB starts doing barely more dmg total per rune (3.8k), but less on any single target with each rune, for strategic purposes HS is still probably the better choice up to 5 targets. Beyond 5 targets BB's total damage and spread make it desirable for good foundation threat, but it may still only be worth occasional use with heavier HS's on main targets (6 targets = 5700 dmg total per pop).

DK Threat Math (archive)

Satorri — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 14:05:41 GMT

Death Knight Threat Calculations

For the sake of a better understanding of threat, I wanted to lay out some calculations and the factors of various abilities and talents. Hopefully this will give people a sense of the value of various spells, as well as the relative threat value of different features on those moves.

For the sake of these examples, I want to set some basic variables, I'll do some sample calculations later that will use sample values for these variables, but until then they will remain variables if you want to plug your own numbers in.
Wdps = weapon dps (as seen on the tooltip)
aWS = actual weapon speed
AP = attack power
dC = disease count

*note: actual weapon damage will be a variable, and is a function of AP, I will extract weapon damage from AP for the sake of seeing AP in all of its influences.

Code:

functional weapon damage = [Wdps + (AP/14)] * aWS

There are some basic modifiers that I will explain up front. I will express my numbers roughly in the scale you are used to seeing, the base 1 dmg = 1 threat. Frost presence applies a threat modifier to many, but not all, threat generated by the DK. This factor is 2.07. There is also threat generated from bonus, non-passive RP gains (note: this does not apply to standard RP generation, the passive value from Butchery, or from the RP gained through Scent of Blood) at a rate of 5 threat per RP gained.

I will mark in the comparisons below, the application of glyph effects as g, where g = 0 if the glyph is not equipped, and g = 1 if it is. Talent effects will be marked as t(acronym)x where x = # points in the talent and will be used as the multiplier, and acronyms will be provided. Physical effects are subject to reduction by armor, that factor will be expressed as A, where A = (1 - mitigation %). So, let's look at some of the ability breakdowns.

FU Pairs
This is a popular set for most builds, with the various options for big hits from 2-rune costs. Here are the formulae breakdowns.
Obliterate

Code:

Tooltip: 100%WD + 292 + 146 per disease = WD+292+(146*dC)

Full breakdown: 
D = {[Wdps + (AP/14)]*aWS+292+(146*dC)}*(1.2*g)*[t(t10)x*0.1+1.0] * A

Bonus threat = 5 * (t(CoG)x *2.5)

t(t10) = Blood-gorged, Tundra Stalker, or Rage of Rivendare under right conditions
t(CoG) = Chill of the Grave

Death Strike

Code:

Tooltip: 60%WD + 178.2 = 0.6*WD+178.2

Full breakdown:
D = {0.60*[Wdps + (AP/14)]*aWS+178.2}*(1.02*g)*[t(t10)x*0.1+1.0] * A
H = D*(0.5*dC+1)

*both healing and damage threat is multiplied by the Frost presence multiplier, but only half the healing value which actually heals you is counted.

Scourge Strike

Code:

Tooltip: 60%WD + 190.5 + 95.25 per disease = 0.6*WD+190.5+(95.25*dC)

Full Breakdown:
D = {0.6*[Wdps + (AP/14)]*aWS+190.5+(95.25*dC)}*[t(t10)x*0.1+1.0]*[1+(0.01+0.04*t(EPB)x)]

Bonus threat = 5 * (t(D)x *2.5)

t(EPB) = Ebon Plague Bringer
t(D) = Dirge

Howling Blast

Code:

Tooltip: 259-281 frost damage, double damage with Frost Fever
AP coeff = 0.1

Full Breakdown:
D = (274+0.1*AP)*(2*FF)*[t(t10)x*0.1+1.0]*[1+t(GR)x*0.05]*[1+t(BI)x*0.06]

Bonus threat = 5 * (t(CoG)x *2.5)

FF = 0 if Frost Fever not applied, FF = 1 if it is
t(GR) = Glaciar Rot
t(BI) = Black Ice

These are also internal only factors, and do not account for improved crit chances, bonus crit damage, or other class buffs.

I'll do more later for some sample calculations of threat with particular talents, weapons, and other circumstances.

DK Power System (archive)

Satorri — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 14:03:12 GMT

Death Knight Power System

The first thing, I wanted to develop a language for discussing our class power system that would both allow for easy and shared shorthand, and possibly help structure the ways in which people see runes and RP for structuring their priorities and sequences.

The system is fairly simple and most people grasp it fairly quickly:

DK's have 6 runes, two of each, Blood, Frost, and Unholy. Runes have a 10 second recharge, or 1 second if your attack misses, is dodged, or is parried.
DK's have a Runic Power (RP) gauge. The gauge defaults to a 0-100 scale (cap can be raised with talents), and RP is generated primarily through using moves that cost runes. By default, moves that cost one rune generate 10 RP, and moves that cost 2 or 3 runes generate 15 RP. Select moves can improve the amount of RP generated.

For the sake of easy discussion, we already have an extensive list of acronyms and abbreviations for our moves that can be found stickied in this sub-forum. For the sake of distinguishing power system discussions, I'm proposing the following standard:

Runes can be referred to by their letter.
Blood = B
Frost = F
Unholy = U

With the rune representations we can refer to them in one of 3 conditions: single runes, rune pairs (2 runes spent simulataneously or in close sequence), and rune sets (BFU groups). And for the sake of simplicity, let's call a full set of runes (BFU BFU) a Rune Bar.

This way we can keep discussions of runes and rune sets distinct from spell abbreviations (BB = Blood Boil, BB set = Blood, Blood runes). I am particularly interested in this because I want to elevate the discussion on rune use and managing sets. Though it may not seem that way, the DK power system is the most complex in the game. Mana, Rage, and Energy are very simple systems. Mana is a large pool with large costs, and generally regen is much slower than burn making it a matter of efficiency of spending. Rage uses a 0-100, default to 0, scale and is generated through dealing and taking damage, as well as through talent-set conditions. Energy is a 0-100, default to full, scale and is only spent, while it regenerates very rapidly. All these systems are extremely consistant though, in that they are a single linear gauge with a balance of spending versus generation. For DK's, the balance is different. We use 6 independent cooldowns, and a secondary gauge like rage. Let's take a closer look.

All DK spells/abilities use one of 4 possible costs:

B, F, U
FU
BFU
RP cost (usually, 40 or all available for scaling, or 20 for RS)

From this there are two ways to consider spending patterns on the rune system, one I consider advanced, and one that is very straight forward and should be an easy method for newer players to keep it organized.

The basic method is simply to handle pairs. BB pairs, FU pairs, and BFU sets for DnD/AotD and IT/PS/Pest. The specific spending of each will depend on the spec and talents, but as an example, for a Blood DK on a single target you can see your sets as follows:
FU pair = IT > PS
BB pair = HS > HS
FU pair = OB
Assuming no misses, this is 5 moves, or 7.5 sec (without latency) giving you one CD to Deathcoil to use extra RP before your first Frost rune comes back up.

Most builds will lend themselves to bi-phasic spending. That means you'll go through 4 BFU sets, or 2 full bars of runes, before you repeat your patterns. For DPS and for beginners it may be easier to try and execute a consistant pattern.

For advanced users, adaptation is key. You need to recognize your options for each rune or rune pair, and pick the best option for the situation. Rigid rotations are limiting and robotic, and you can improve on your performance with the ability to improvise. In order to establish your priorities and set the base for an adaptive system, you need to identify your moves and their relative value. For example, I'll use my build:
= B
==> BS = 950 (3 diseases), physical, melee, single target
==> BB = 700 (3 diseases), shadow, spell, unlimited targets 30 yrds of target
==> Pest = 400, shadow, spell, unlimited targets 15 yrds of caster, spreads diseases
==> Rune Tap = 4k *heal on caster, 10% heal on other 4 in party.
**Pest is not worth the damage on its own, only the utility. Rune Tap is obviously only needed for healing, but group healing is a consideration. BS outperforms BB on a single target, but BB is better with 2+ mobs provided diseases are well spread.

= FU
==> IT/PS = 1400/700, frost/physical, single target, spell/melee, apply diseases, PS generates 5 extra RP and sets Desecration
==> ScS = 2200, shadow, single target, melee, 25% chance to apply both diseases, generates 5 extra RP
==> DS = 900, 2.2k *heal, physical, melee
==> OB = physical, melee, consumes diseases
**Obviously, for this build, OB is a waste, it consumes diseases and even if it matched ScS for damage it would be more hurt than help. DS is decent value for threat (see next discussion) and survival through heals, but ScS with Dirge and the eponymous glyph is a better overall value and doesn't have to heal to get full value.

= BFU
==> DnD = 400 dmg every sec for 10 sec, shadow, spell, unlimited targets in standard 20 yrd footprint. Bonus threat factor.
==> AotD = in total, ghouls do about 800 dps for about 20-30 sec, generate own threat, and taunt. Can cause eradic mob behavior as they pull of the tank.
** DnD is good value all around, albeit expensive. Excellent pickup value and foundation threat, but not sufficient alone against heavy aoe. AotD is nice for raid damage, but it is not threat for the tank and it can make for a bit of chaos. For raid purposes AotD is saved for multi-mob pulls that are out of control, boss enrages, or tank deaths. While it is competitve for damage with a PS/IT/BS set, DnD will only generate 15 RP while the single moves generate 35 total. For this reason the single moves are often favored on single targets.

= RP
==> DC = 1800, shadow, spell, 30 yrd range. single target, 40 RP cost.
==> CE = 1400, shadow, spell, 20 yrd splash from corpse, unlimited targets, 40 RP cost, requires undetonated corpse.
==> UB = 200 dmg per sec for 20 sec, 10 yrd range unlimited targets, shadow, spell, 40 RP cost.
==> RS = 2500, physical, melee (no dodge/parry), triggers off tank dodge/parry, 20 RP cost, bonus threat factor.
** RS is macro'd to all the standard moves, when it procs it will be used, and it is the best threat per RP spell, so RP should always be allowed available for it. UB is worth the next most threat per RP, even on single target. It is major value the more targets available, but its value drops off quickly the shorter the exposure is. Generally, provided the fight will last 15 sec or more, UB should be up first, and maintained for longer fights. DC is worth more single target damage than CE, but CE will pass it for any pull 2 or more, provided there is a corpse.

Based on these numbers and priorities, the player can know in a given situation what the best choice is in the moment. Hopefully this can work as a template for those who want to develop their own priorities beyond a static rotation.

More will evolve on this with time, and spec specific concepts.