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View Full Version : The Weekly Marmot - The Lucky Number 7



Lore
05-03-2011, 04:16 PM
gi6N7mjZQWs

Pug
05-03-2011, 05:18 PM
Bwamp

peespipe
05-03-2011, 08:02 PM
Perhaps I'm being a bit optimistic, but any raid content that features Raggy as the end boss should be good and fun.

Okay, so there was that bit about him with legs, but I'm quite looking forward to that. It will be worth enraging him just to get a glimpse up that loincloth. :P

Huge Pillar of Flame and Ginormous Magma Spheres ftw!!!

K-rloz
05-03-2011, 08:50 PM
can we get the link of that post you mention?

Therec
05-03-2011, 10:56 PM
I think you pretty much nailed this one Lore. Most of the raiders in my guild weren't concerned so much that there was only 7 bosses, it was the thought of 7 bosses for 8 months when we're already tired of the current tier with 13 bosses. If Blizzard is able to put out the next tier in due time then we'll be fine.

The only other concern we had was something that, as you said, Bashiok did not help with his response. Only having a single instance with 7 bosses will take maybe a night when you've got the bosses on farm. Bashiok made it sound like this is what Blizzard wanted, and our other 6 nights were supposed to be spent doing PvP, dailies, and so forth. Granted it is inevitable that guilds will eventually be able to do this, but Blizzard made it sound as if the guilds who raid 4 nights a week will have nothing to do the other 3 nights from the start, unless we want to go farm T11 hardmodes the remaining nights. If that's not the case, then awesome.

I really look forward to 4.2, but I look forward in sort of a cautionary state.

swelt
05-04-2011, 03:34 AM
I'm surprised that the instance people are likening Firelands to is Trial of the Crusader. Seems like a better parallel would be Sunwell. I guess all 3 are "daily quest hub + raid instance" releases, but Sunwell with trash and 6 bosses (including one very iconic final boss) seems like a better comparison. I don't remember people complaining about the size of Sunwell (perhaps the gating and the difficulty/accessibility)

There's an interesting angle to look at the 'how much content' question, which is to ask yourself "when are my raiders happy with the level of progression" and count back from there. I'd argue that raid groups are happy when they are steadily progressing, bored when they are farming and frustrated when they stall on a boss. If you said 'steady progression' is 1 new boss kills per raid, maybe 1 new heroic boss kill per 2 raids, you can probably calculate how long a raid group doing 3 nights per week could chew through 7 bosses without getting bored. You'd probably want to allow for a couple of entry level bosses at the start, you'd need to factor some time for repeat kills / farm kills:

Week 1 - 3-4 new bosses
Week 2 - 1-2 new bosses
Week 3 - 1-2 new bosses
Week 4 - Ragnaros dead, Normal modes complete
Week 5 - 1 new hard mode
Week 6 - 1-2 new hard modes
Week 7 - 1-2 new hard modes
Week 8 - 1-2 new hard modes
Week 9 - 1-2 new hard modes
Week 10 - Heroic Ragnaros

Now naturally there will be guilds that progress faster than that and guilds that progress a lot slower. I imagine that it's also very difficult to tune the difficulty of boss encounters such that they can facilitate this kind of smooth curve of progression. Typically, you'd expect an end-of-dungeon boss to take a bit longer to learn, some of the hard modes might be not that hard, etc. To me, ~2-3 months for a single tier of raid content seems like a good target. By then, whether you are far progressed or not, you could probably do with something new to do anyway.

Rowdy
05-04-2011, 06:10 AM
Good point, Lore. I liked it.

This issue already bothers me and my raid. We are all experienced players that just canīt or donīt want to put in a lot of time into the game anymore because we donīt have the time or donīt like the way the game has developed (apart from playing together with our friends). Because of that we raid 1-2 times a week (and rarely play outside of that) and we are already extremely bored with the current content. Most hardmodes are not that great and we probably get to "content clear" aka 13/13 before Firelands hit. Severe nerfs (=/= changes that make them less setup-dependent in 10-man or anything) hitting the fights is also frustrating. And all of this with three dungeons and 12 bosses.

I can only imagine how boring it would have to be to raid 2-3 times a week, weīd been through the content for several weeks now - not to mention that you farm the entire content on normal modes for at least 6 months.

Mind you, I am not complaining, that a real progression raid doesnīt have content for months. Their goal is to finish content fast and there will never be more than they can do. But I think its ridiculous that a bunch of people donīt have enough content for 1-2 raids a week. Seriously :(



I don't remember people complaining about the size of Sunwell (perhaps the gating and the difficulty/accessibility)The point is, it doesnīt mnatter how many bosses you have - at least for me. Its a number, nothing more. Important is whether a dungeon is fun or not and how long it lasts. Sunwell lasted a long time because the fights were all challenging.

The same cant be expected from the Firelands. A decent raid will breeze through the normal modes within a couple of IDs and from there, you get the same boses for at least half a year. The same dungeon over and over again - including the same fights with only small tweaks as hardmodes.


Edit: I donīt agree with normal modes being significantly harder than at any point before, esp. WotLK. Just because a lot of people say so or feel that way, doesnīt mean its true. All the data we have from sites like wowprogress.com suggest, that the raid community is very close to what it was in WotLK in terms of progression.

noachr
05-04-2011, 07:19 AM
My primary concern with squeezing an entire tier into 7 bosses is itemization. With that small a number, there isn't much room for multiple items of the same sort (i.e. several different strength dps trinkets). This seems especially problematic since the merging of loot between 10 and 25 -- in Wrath 25 mans had larger loot tables than they do now.

Jericho
05-04-2011, 04:42 PM
I wanted to address a few things you said specifically. So here goes...

5 Months til the next tier -
If you can honestly say with a straight face that Blizzard has failed to produce new content at a rate that the "majority" of players has been happy with since the beginning. The difference is that back in Vanilla and TBC we had a very different raiding paradigm. Players had to progress through the previous tier in order to raid the current tier of dungeons. This made content at 5 periods a decent rate for most players.

Then you come to the 6 months that were between the farcical content that was tier 7 and the beauty that was Ulduar. The vast majority of players felt that this period was too long. Now we are looking at upwards of 8 months between tier 11 and tier 12 and then getting a full half of the content that was given to us in Ulduar. Is 5 months acceptable between 12 and 13? If the same difficulty of 11 is within 12, most players will be staring at the end of a multiple month period where they have defeated 7/7. Now I do not discount the heroic modes, but to those players that spend 3+ months just to gain access to the heroics do not want to be told they have 2-3 more months in the same instance.

Heroic modes are NOT content for 90% of players. To tell the majority of players that they are not ready for new content because they spent 6 months of raiding time striving to defeat normal mode Nefarion is a joke. By this time, they ARE ready for the new. Staring at any mode of Magmaw, Maloriak, Chogall or Halfus does not give any feeling of joy that it once did.

8/12 sucking? "We're bad" -
To say this is a bit ... I do not know. Its ok to believe that you are bad and to believe that you are better than your current situation. Heck, I surely believe this about myself. It is another thing to say it repeatedly to a group of players that have not managed to get as far as you. Eight of 12 is a feat in and of itself. What percentage of groups can say they are 8/12? Not very many.

"too much content in t11"
You honestly believe this? Where have you heard this from? Seriously, where? Every person I know in the game, both top 10 guild and top 10,000 guild all say there is not enough new content in the game. Players are getting bored of the tedium and repetition of raiding the same 12 or 13 bosses a week. Players want more and have wanted is since February. An above average guild can clear all content within 3 days. A good guild can clear it in less than 2 raid nights. The elite, I imagine farm things in a single evening. Heroic or normal, it does not matter. Those who do not strive to clear the heroics may be "less than" the elites or the "goods", but they are no less unhappy with the number of bosses and new content that is out there to defeat.

When players are ready for it? "The majority" -
If we go by the "majority", then we will be waiting for that number having defeated 12/12 normal to be above 50%. This is ridiculous. Not all raiding guilds are alike in this world. As I have said about your own. There comes a time when there is a wall either based on your skill level, your available game time, other logistics, or just flat out lack of desire that marks you done with the current content. Personally, this came about the time when 3 others of my guild decided that it wasn't worth their time to continue working on Heroic Atramedes cause the game had gotten boring and predictable and repetitive. So we took a break from raiding for a few weeks in order to try and get that feeling back. More like hoping that Blizzard would give us something to quench our thirst for content in 4.1. Then Firelands became 4.2 and it was done. With all the Firelands information coming out, we are back again, hungry for new content, but wary that the amount of content is once again being heavily weighted by the repetition within the same raid with heroic modes.

The majority of the raiding core of the game has been ready for new content for a while. Maybe not in their achievements in Azeroth itself, but in their minds. This is unfortunately something that Blizzard is obviously looking at "real numbers" instead of the feeling that its playerbase has in the pits of their stomach after entering Bastion of Twilight for the 15th or 16th time. Yes I know some players have been in those instances 20+ times. But that brings the question, how many times seeing the same encounter is too many? Obviously, 16 means that you ahve raided that instance for 4 months. To me, 4 months is far too long of doing the same thing for the same reasons and getting the same reward.

feralminded
05-05-2011, 06:42 AM
In lore's defense at this point 8/12 puts a guild at the ~40th percentile on wow progress. By any objective standard that certainly isn't good. Sure there's possible mitigating circumstances (just started raiding last week, whatever) ... but his statement in and of itself is not innaccurate even if it hits close to home.

Dedic
05-05-2011, 11:53 AM
Are you saying 60% of raid guilds have gotten further than 8/12 heroic?

feralminded
05-05-2011, 12:46 PM
Are you saying 60% of raid guilds have gotten further than 8/12 heroic? 8/12 refers to normal, 8/13 would refer to heroic. Regardless all I was saying is that 8/12 puts you in the mid 30,000s range world-wide out of ~60,000 guilds who have killed 1 or more raid bosses. out of the <60,000 guilds with a single boss killed, ~25% of them are 12/12 already. 8/12 isn't very far at this point.

http://www.wowprogress.com/ is your datamining friend.

Again this is not a judgement of their skill, merely an observation of their progress. The question was asked "what percentage of groups can say they are 8/12" and the answer is ~60% of those who have a single boss kill.

Dedic
05-05-2011, 12:53 PM
I've heard it both ways. X/13 or X/12HM.

Regardless, Lore is referring to his guild's heroic progression.

feralminded
05-05-2011, 12:56 PM
I've heard it both ways. X/13 or X/12HM.

Regardless, Lore is referring to his guild's heroic progression.

Whoa whoa whoa ... how very true. I majorly misread here ... ffs ... total comprehension failure. My apologies for the pontifications. /iutterlyfail

feralminded
05-05-2011, 01:17 PM
And now to pontificate on the actual message ... because I'm an asshat like that and always have to have a point.


8/12 sucking? "We're bad" -
To say this is a bit ... I do not know. Its ok to believe that you are bad and to believe that you are better than your current situation. Heck, I surely believe this about myself. It is another thing to say it repeatedly to a group of players that have not managed to get as far as you. Eight of 12 is a feat in and of itself. What percentage of groups can say they are 8/12? Not very many.My response to this, outside of my knee-jerk and ill-aimed one prior, is that "it's all relative". A personal story to illustrate.

I am a ridiculously hardcore player who aspires to be the best there ever was ... that's just my competitive level and I am personally dissatisfied with my performance unless I'm the best player in existence ... which means I'm never happy. Progression-wise I would only be happy in say a top 250 guild (99.5 percentile). That said I'm on a server with virtually no progression guilds and am trapped by my loyalty to guild and friends. Poor me, boo hoo. I've run in two 10 mans this expansion and both were two days a week. One was "with friends who are serious, but not hardcore", the other was "hardcore, but only 2 days a week".

My "with friends" raid I'm disappointed if we are not in the top 10,000 guilds (~85th percentile, currently 1/13HC). We only raid 6 hours a week but they're good players and should be able to keep up. We've generally been on the cusp of that so I've generally been on the cusp of disappointed with our progress.

My other hardcore 8 hours/week raid I set a goal of top 2,500, or roughly top 95th percentile. They took things fairly seriously, had some exceptional players and generally before it fell apart they were bouncing between 900 and 1,800. We were 5/13HC two months ago when they fell apart. I was generally very satisfied with this raid because it usually exceeded my expectations.

Lore obviously has larger expectations for his guild than they are meeting. Were I to commit to a 16 hour/week raid I'd probably have some very lofty expectations as well and would feel disappointed if they weren't met, regardless of how many people I may have been out-performing. They are 854th as of this second, looks like they got Nef down (good for them), and that puts them in the 98.5 percentile. Obviously that's very VERY good compared to the community at large but objectively how good is it for a 16 hour/week guild? I dunno, probably about average I guess ... I don't know anything at all about their guild beyond what I've picked up from watching 90 episodes of the marmot. What I DO know is at one point they were a top 100 guild or something close so it's very likely he's just lamenting the shift backwards from such great heights. That said I get the impression from Lore that his guild highly values the community aspect of their guild so perhaps he's just overstating it for dramatic effect and is very satisfied with their performance. I know my exceedingly casual friends guild is very happy with our ~10,000 ranking even though I seethe about it all the time.

It's all about perspective ... always has been.

Dedic
05-05-2011, 01:31 PM
I agree totally, feral. To rephrase (and sum up lol) what you said, Lore is not saying that everyone who is at or below their progression sucks. We shouldn't take it personally. It was really an offhand comment he made about MB being "terrible" in the middle of discussing how much raid content is too much. I think we just got a small window into his disappointment that his guild isn't as far along as he believes a hardcore guild should be.

(Oh, and he actually does say "8/13 Heroic" in the video LOL)

Skydude
05-06-2011, 01:04 PM
We also heard about a 5 man Underwater instance like the Vashj'r zone. I'm sure it and possibly another instance maybe will come out between firelands and the next major patch. It will be a little bit to tide us over for a little while whilst we wait.

Jericho
05-09-2011, 02:45 PM
It's all about perspective ... always has been.

Oh I completely agree that it is all a matter of perspective. The issue I had was not that he thought that he and his guild sucked for being 8/13 and now 9/13, but that he said it on the podcast that is not specifically targeted towards the top 5% of guilds. It just came off as really bad form and "false modesty" to be saying that a guild that is one of the 1.66% of all guilds who have defeated Heroic Nefarian as bad. Know your audience I guess is the point I'd like to make.


We also heard about a 5 man Underwater instance like the Vashj'r zone. I'm sure it and possibly another instance maybe will come out between firelands and the next major patch. It will be a little bit to tide us over for a little while whilst we wait.

Was that in fact another 5 man? I had been under the impression that this would actually be a "smaller" Gruul style raid instance at some point. Neptulon was "taken" at the end of the Throne of Tides and it would not really be much of an ending if we saw him kidnapped in one 5man and had to save him again in another. But yes, I do agree that we will more than likely see this same paradigm continuing moving forward. Hopefully we will see Firelands release in mid to late June (4-6 weeks of PTR time) and then 3 months later we will see 4.3 with another pair of new "stepping stone/gear reset" heroics to prepare lagging players for 4.4's War of the Ancients in 5 months time.

I will say that 8 months was too long for BWD/BoT/To4W. Regardless of your progression through heroic modes, it is too long to be seeing the same mechanics over and over again. With that being said, 6 months for 7 bosses will be about 2 months too long for Firelands without a "Ruby Sanctum" to keep us busy. This is where we could see a Vashjir mini raid instance.