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View Full Version : Devalueing of Dodge in ICC / Tanking with DPS Sigils



Blasterion
10-30-2009, 07:40 AM
In the on coming patch ICC has an aura that reduce all dodge by 20% (I personally then would be around 5% dodge) there for i feel it would render the Current Tanking Sigils Much less useful. Meanwhile, Rune Strike Procs are greatly reduced due to lack of dodge and our Threat may be in jeopardy. My theory is to use a dps sigil for Threat. I.E Awareness but i do like the change honestly Chill of the Throne = no more 2 shotted deaths

Mert
10-30-2009, 08:54 AM
First off, it's a 20% reduction and, more importantly, it has no effect on Dodge over and above 20% (which realistically every tank who is geared for ICC should have) as it is reduced after diminishing returns.

For example, if your Sigil gives you an extra 5% Dodge with your current gear then it will still give you 5% Dodge in Icecrown Citadel. Dodge is really no better or worse than it ever has been as a result of the Aura and if you have a Sigil, Libram, Idol or Gun that gives you more Dodge then it's still just as viable. After all, your purpose as a tank is still to hold aggro whilst not dying - if the Sigil helps you not die then so be it.

The only things that become slightly worse off are things that proc based on a successful Dodge - obviously you'll Dodge less often in Icecrown so it'll proc less often. If it gives you a flat increase or a proc based on anything other than a Dodge then it's the same now as it always has been.

Esch
10-30-2009, 09:23 AM
The only things that become slightly worse off are things that proc based on a successful Dodge - obviously you'll Dodge less often in Icecrown so it'll proc less often. If it gives you a flat increase or a proc based on anything other than a Dodge then it's the same now as it always has been.

Slightly? Having adequate avoidance on a DK Tank is a serious threat concern. I've seen shield slams, SotR and Mauls at the start of a pull yank aggro. Apologies are nice, but it has gotten to the point that if there is no Rune Strike proc, someone will pull threat.

Napkin Math - Figuring I'm ~ 50% parry/dodge raid buffed, I've got about an one in four chance of not getting my next melee hit converted to RS, against a two second swing timer. The 20% hit to dodge increases the odds of not getting an RS proc roughly from 25% to 49%. Given that RS is effectively a DKs only spammable, high threat ability... that's frightening.

Blasterion
10-30-2009, 09:32 AM
First off, it's a 20% reduction and, more importantly, it has no effect on Dodge over and above 20% (which realistically every tank who is geared for ICC should have) as it is reduced after diminishing returns.

For example, if your Sigil gives you an extra 5% Dodge with your current gear then it will still give you 5% Dodge in Icecrown Citadel. Dodge is really no better or worse than it ever has been as a result of the Aura and if you have a Sigil, Libram, Idol or Gun that gives you more Dodge then it's still just as viable. After all, your purpose as a tank is still to hold aggro whilst not dying - if the Sigil helps you not die then so be it.

The only things that become slightly worse off are things that proc based on a successful Dodge - obviously you'll Dodge less often in Icecrown so it'll proc less often. If it gives you a flat increase or a proc based on anything other than a Dodge then it's the same now as it always has been.
While survival remains true That is lesser of my concern more of my concern actually lies within the less proc of Rune strikes

Satorri
10-30-2009, 09:47 AM
To be clear, Chill of the Throne does *not* devalue dodge, it simply reduces it.


That said, it will be a definite issue to keep an eye on for DK tanks, and we'll see if Blizz throws us a bone to help balance that out a bit for RS threat lost. It would be a hard sell though, as changing something to shift our threat elsewhere or improve RS to counter the loss from loss of procs from dodge in IC would overpower it in all the other content. Let's see what comes of it, because you know this will not go unseen at Blizz, and they're not about to let our threat get hammered.

Maelstrom
10-30-2009, 10:05 AM
That death and decay set bonus looks pretty good now. I tend to open with D&D, IT, PS, Heart Strike, ERW, DS, DS, HS, HS if burst threat really matters on the pull. This is for bosses, trash, well, frankly who gives a crap who tanks it. We had our ret paladin tank half the trash the other week when we went back to Ulduar25 for luls.

Nephelai
10-30-2009, 12:02 PM
To be clear, Chill of the Throne does *not* devalue dodge, it simply reduces it.


That said, it will be a definite issue to keep an eye on for DK tanks, and we'll see if Blizz throws us a bone to help balance that out a bit for RS threat lost. It would be a hard sell though, as changing something to shift our threat elsewhere or improve RS to counter the loss from loss of procs from dodge in IC would overpower it in all the other content. Let's see what comes of it, because you know this will not go unseen at Blizz, and they're not about to let our threat get hammered.


I have posted the following point in two other threads in the last few minutes, but having lurked Satorri's posts for months I am surprised given your math skills that you didn't note that the "bone" might already be thrown. It would be consistent with their stated goals for them to speed up the auto attack timer on bosses with the new reduced avoidance mechanic. More auto-attacks (softer hitting) over time equals more chances over time to dodge/parry. This should not only smooth out damage (as is the goal), but should also result in RS procs at similar numbers with lower avoidance.

Scenario 1: On a two second timer I have 30 chances in a minute to dodge/parry and proc an RS.

Scenario 2: On a 1 second timer I have 60 chances in a minute to dodge/parry and proc an RS.

If my net avoidance from dodge and parry is 50 percent and 10 percent of attacks are misses then I dodge/parry 50 percent of 27 attacks in scenario 1 for a total of 13.5 dodge/parry per minute on a 2 second timer.

If my net avoidance from dodge and parry is 30 percent and 10 percent of attacks are misses, then I dodge/parry 30 percent of 54 attacks in scenario 2 for a total of 16.2 dodge/parry per minute on a 1 second timer.

As you can see then, the auto attacks can still be considerably slower then 1 second before I end up with less dodge/parry and thus less threat then I currently get over time on a 2 second auto-attack timer. The happy medium seems to be a boss swing timer somewhere between 1 and 1.5 seconds.

Jeges
10-30-2009, 12:42 PM
It still devalues dodge. In fact, it devalues avoidance across the board. 10% avoidance might take me from 60% to 70% avoidance now, reducing damage intake by 25%. Post-aura, I'm going from 40% to 50% avoidance, reducing damage intake by only 1/6.

lyd
10-30-2009, 01:20 PM
It still devalues dodge. In fact, it devalues avoidance across the board. 10% avoidance might take me from 60% to 70% avoidance now, reducing damage intake by 25%. Post-aura, I'm going from 40% to 50% avoidance, reducing damage intake by only 1/6.

that's not why it devalues avoidance. the devaluation comes from applying the 20% tax after DR instead of before it.

it is important to note that the net effect on overall survivability will be ZERO if blizzard runs the tables correctly on boss damage and swing speed. but it does have the effect of setting avoidance gains back on the regression curve by 20%. it devalues avoidance, but it does not impact your survivability. in fact, it increases it by reducing incidences of spike damage.

KnThrak
10-31-2009, 05:53 AM
You could always blow ERW on the pull. I tend to do that because all my tries to use it reactively to produce some meaningful effect midfight have yielded... well... a second Blood Tap for when I want to AMZ right after I used Blood Tap on BS.

And that effect is comparatively small. It usually ends in that I actually forget about ERW.
Using it on the pull has helped a bit there. At least I used it, and I use it in a way where the gain from using it is fully reliable and perceivable, it gives me some added lead-threat. ^_^

Masterkiller
10-31-2009, 11:40 AM
Scenario 1: On a two second timer I have 30 chances in a minute to dodge/parry and proc an RS.

Scenario 2: On a 1 second timer I have 60 chances in a minute to dodge/parry and proc an RS.

If my net avoidance from dodge and parry is 50 percent and 10 percent of attacks are misses then I dodge/parry 50 percent of 27 attacks in scenario 1 for a total of 13.5 dodge/parry per minute on a 2 second timer.

If my net avoidance from dodge and parry is 30 percent and 10 percent of attacks are misses, then I dodge/parry 30 percent of 54 attacks in scenario 2 for a total of 16.2 dodge/parry per minute on a 1 second timer.

As you can see then, the auto attacks can still be considerably slower then 1 second before I end up with less dodge/parry and thus less threat then I currently get over time on a 2 second auto-attack timer. The happy medium seems to be a boss swing timer somewhere between 1 and 1.5 seconds.

I think we were both thinking of the same thing, but this is all based on a faster swing timer on the majority of the bosses in ICC. I have asked around for any evidence of this based on the PTR so if you find any let's get the info out there.

However I think your dodge/parry numbers might be a bit to high for the average population. Here is what I posted over at deathknight.info

Current content:
Boss with 2 second swing timer swings 30 times per minute. With 44% dodge/parry from paper doll we are looking at 13 dodge/parry per minute or roughly one every 4.6 seconds.

ICC with Chill of the Throne 1.5 sec boss swing timer:
Boss with 1.5 second swing timer swings 40 times per minute. With 24% dodge/parry we are lookat at 9.6 dodge/parry per minute or roughly one every 6.25 seconds.

Blasterion
10-31-2009, 07:41 PM
while we know that rune strike amounts will be reduced and our avoidance (dodge) will be devalued some still question lie in whether it will be better to shelf the dodge sigils for damage modifier sigils to accomodate the threat loss as well as since dodge is some what devalued

Death Golem
10-31-2009, 08:14 PM
if this is just in Icecrown Citadel is it really important? barely anyone will be able to get in and actually kill any of the bosses...

Nephelai
10-31-2009, 10:01 PM
I think we were both thinking of the same thing, but this is all based on a faster swing timer on the majority of the bosses in ICC. I have asked around for any evidence of this based on the PTR so if you find any let's get the info out there.

However I think your dodge/parry numbers might be a bit to high for the average population. Here is what I posted over at deathknight.info

Current content:
Boss with 2 second swing timer swings 30 times per minute. With 44% dodge/parry from paper doll we are looking at 13 dodge/parry per minute or roughly one every 4.6 seconds.

ICC with Chill of the Throne 1.5 sec boss swing timer:
Boss with 1.5 second swing timer swings 40 times per minute. With 24% dodge/parry we are lookat at 9.6 dodge/parry per minute or roughly one every 6.25 seconds.

I am getting 40.66 percent combined avoidance from dodge and parry unbuffed with 25.31 percent dodge and 20.42 percent parry (taking percents of percents to get total like a good little poker player) WoW Heroes - World of Warcraft PvE character info & ratings (http://wow-heroes.com/index.php?zone=us&server=Bladefist&name=Nephelai) in gear that is probably good enough for entry level non-heroic Icecrown raiding... so your estimate of 44 percent is a little more accurate for average end game raid buffed numbers, I just used 50 percent because I was doing the math in my head, and 50 percent was easy and illustrated the principal, of course you can get crazy with the estimates, using dodge trinkets/sigils while raid buffed I usually get hit about 40 to 42 percent of the time after about a 10 percent or so miss rate derived from default boss hit rate of 95 percent adjusted by frigid dead plate and defense.

Unfortunately, I don't have any hard and fast information on what attack speed Icecrown bosses will actually have. I was just optamistically reading between the lines of the blue posts on Chill of the Throne and applying a little wishful thinking to what the words seemed to be saying. We will know more when we know more. I actually when preparing the post originally calculated the hypo Icecrown Boss at a 1.5 second swing like you did, and then changed my calculations to 1 second to make them more rosy... because this is still all hypothetical and unverifiable so I wen't with pie in the sky that looked more appetizing (imagine... decreased dodge INCREASING threat...lol).

I guess the nut shell is... faster swing time with smaller hits equals good for dk threat, but we shall see when we see.

Zyffyr
10-31-2009, 10:55 PM
if this is just in Icecrown Citadel is it really important? barely anyone will be able to get in and actually kill any of the bosses...

You can expect that anyone currently capable of killing bosses in ToGC will be able to kill bosses in Icecrown Citadel.

In other words, many people will be able to.

Edgewalker
11-01-2009, 12:19 AM
1. No, it doesn't devalue dodge. It doesn't make dodge gear less useful. In fact, it likely won't change or shouldn't change how anyone gears in the slightest. I expect to see this same garbage posted about 100 more times though (anyone else remember Sunwell Radiance posts? Good lord...)

2. RS Threat will, in all likelihood, be fine. Before we see boss swing speeds I would be hard pressed to find panic, especially as one of the highest easily achievable threat classes.

Satorri
11-02-2009, 07:27 AM
I did some research over the weekend, and did some contemplation as well, and here's where I'm standing at the moment.

GC made a post specifically to answer this concern. Their stance is that it is not quite as big a deal as people are afraid. It will result in a loss of threat (and for everyone not just us, BoSanc, Rage from Dodge, Revenge, etc), but they're ok with that.

On the matter of how much it will actually amount to. The thought occured to me. So, we have Dodge+Parry is our chance to proc RS. Currently, pretty typical numbers to see from ToC geared tanks (somewhere between ToC10 and ToGC25) would be about 30% dodge and 20% parry without much effort or undue attention. Let's consider a 2h for the moment, as they will RS less but for bigger effect. After raid buffs you'll be swinging ~2.4 sec intervals, so 25 swings per minute. Incoming swings typically about 2.0 sec intervals (30 swings per minute). If you're currently avoiding 50% of those in a way to trigger RS, that's 15 procs per minute, and it's probably safe to guess 1 or 2 of those *may* get wasted for sequential avoids. Currently, again, roughly average RS represents 20-30% of a DK tank's threat depending on spec, talents, and glyphs. If you now drop 20% of that chance to proc you'll go down to 30% of those incoming swings or 9 procs, if we still lose 1 to bad luck on timing, we've lost ~5 procs per minute, a 30% reduction in RS's fired, and a 30% reduction to 30% of your threat (to use the most extreme case) is still only a 9% total threat loss. Personally I only average about 22-24% of my total threat through RS (and I've been cradling the t8 2 pc set bonus until I get my 4th trophy, though I don't have RS glyphed), so for me that'd only be a 6.5% total threat loss.

Are any DK's here running so close that 9% less threat will have their dps pulling off them? I think that's where the lack of concern comes in with Blizz. That is also about as severe as I think we'll see. It may also just serve to make the RS glyph less mandatory in many people's eyes and open the doors to a bit more diversity in glyph choices.

Call me silly, but I'm a sucker for their being multiple and equally valuable choices, it allows the WoW tanking world to be interesting, not just an on-off light switch, you made the "right" choices or the "wrong" ones.

Satorri
11-02-2009, 07:29 AM
Oh, and to revise my previous statement, it will only devalue dodge if you are under 20% dodge chance. Since no one, NO ONE, going into Icecrown could be sporting under 20% dodge given the abundance found on the gear that would mean you are prepared for it, no one should have any lost value on dodge.

jere
11-02-2009, 08:19 AM
but it does have the effect of setting avoidance gains back on the regression curve by 20%.

The -20% has absolute zero effect on the DR curve. DR gains do not change with Icecrown Radiance. Subtracting the 20% after DR ensures that (I.E. the DR has already occured before the reduction.

If you are getting .6% dodge for every 1% you add now, you will still get 0.6% dodge for every 1% after Icecrown Radiance. None of that changes.

Satorri
11-02-2009, 08:22 AM
If the -20% put you back to the floor on the DR curve, I suspect fewer people would be complaining since their dodge value would be much bigger. Instead, it's just as good as it was the day before.

Mecer
11-02-2009, 10:06 AM
With Respect to the sigil question, the new sigil (according to mmo-champ) is a stacking dodge buff from runestrike (10s duration but it refreshes with a new application of RS). In all other content its a great sigil as we'd be able to maintain the full stack through out a boss. However with the reduction of our RS procs, the value of this sigil will be under that of the current triumph sigil with its 20s duration.

The other observation is the new 10man trinket is a stacking stamina buff (procs off dodge 24/stack, 10stack max), will be unable to stack to high enough to become better than the Direbrew trinkets.

Nephelai
11-02-2009, 10:15 AM
If your only consolation to DR to begin with was the more linear effect of increased avoidance then I can see why this would be described as "devaluing dodge." It is true that without the 20 percent reduction getting enough dodge rating to give you one additional percent when at 30 percent dodge meant a bigger number of your previously undodged attacks were now dodged (1/70) then it will under the effects of the 20 percent reduction (1/90). This means that the effective avoidance increases under dr will not have that neat linear look that has been discussed in detail in another topic post. It does not however devalue dodge relative to other avoidance. A point of doge rating will still be worth as much with the 20 percent reduction compared to a point of parry as it was before, and the fact that dodge diminishes towards a much higher number means it will still be the more efficient place to stack avoidance.

Satorri
11-02-2009, 10:38 AM
Actually, Mecer inspired me to offer a different way to look at adding dodge.

Ok, so we lose 20% off the top of our dodge, yes? If the typical tank was averaging 50% dodge+parry before, it will be 30% now. Now every bit of dodge you add is adding more RS proc chance value than before. Adding 1% dodge to 50% is a much smaller benefit to gaining RS threat, than adding 1% to 30%. In fact, for the sake of threat this change will enhance the value of dodge from the new baseline.

Nephelai
11-02-2009, 10:41 AM
Actually, Mecer inspired me to offer a different way to look at adding dodge.

Ok, so we lose 20% off the top of our dodge, yes? If the typical tank was averaging 50% dodge+parry before, it will be 30% now. Now every bit of dodge you add is adding more RS proc chance value than before. Adding 1% dodge to 50% is a much smaller benefit to gaining RS threat, than adding 1% to 30%. In fact, for the sake of threat this change will enhance the value of dodge from the new baseline.


lol.. because the effect of one more rune strike is bigger when the baseline is smaller. Thats kind of a funny place to find the roses, but it makes sense.

Edgewalker
11-02-2009, 11:21 AM
Ok, so we lose 20% off the top of our dodge, yes? If the typical tank was averaging 50% dodge+parry before, it will be 30% now. Now every bit of dodge you add is adding more RS proc chance value than before. Adding 1% dodge to 50% is a much smaller benefit to gaining RS threat, than adding 1% to 30%. In fact, for the sake of threat this change will enhance the value of dodge from the new baseline.

That's not true though, mathematically and practically.

lyd
11-02-2009, 11:24 AM
The -20% has absolute zero effect on the DR curve. DR gains do not change with Icecrown Radiance. Subtracting the 20% after DR ensures that (I.E. the DR has already occured before the reduction.

If you are getting .6% dodge for every 1% you add now, you will still get 0.6% dodge for every 1% after Icecrown Radiance. None of that changes.

The bolded statement is, factually speaking, a true statement. But I think you misunderstand what I mean when I say "Devalued", so let me see if I can explain myself better:

when you say "If you are getting .6% dodge for every 1% you add now, you will still get 0.6% dodge for every 1% after Icecrown Radiance," you are correct in the sense that you will still get that raw rate of return both outside and inside the instance. but you are getting it at a lower avoidance bracket. A person outside of ICC with 30% avoidance will get more avoidance per point of parry/dodge rating than a person with 30% avoidance in ICC, because that person has to walk in with 50%, meaning any upgrades they get will give a reduced benefit than they would otherwise. This is because these future gains from gear are being diminished at the 50% DR rate, not the 30% DR rate.

If you think describing this relationship as a "devaluation" is improper, I can deal with that. I did note that I think this change will have zero impact on survivability if they adjust swing speed and damage correctly. So if you define "devaluation" from that perspective, then it is correct that avoidance has not been devalued. But I think the original point is a valid one, however. It stands to reason that you will get less per point of avoidance gained at the same level of avoidance in ICC than you would outside the instance; this is because you have to walk in with 20% more to start, which puts you at a higher rate of diminishing returns, but without actually having the level of avoidance that coincides with that higher DR rate. It would be like if you shifted the tax burden in a country 2 steps down, such that the poorest start at a higher rate. This means that all future income gains will be taxed at a greater rate than they would before the change. that's basically the concept I'm trying to get at.

To put this as succinctly as I can: A tank with 30% avoidance in ICC after the debuff is applied will have avoidance gains from future gear upgrades diminished as if he had 50%. That's what I'm trying to observe, and I think this can be defined as a form of devaluation. If you don't think it's fair to describe this as a devaluation, I'm prepared to relent in using that label, as I really don't care what you call it, so long as people are aware of how the mechanic affects future avoidance gains after the tax is applied.

Edgewalker
11-02-2009, 11:27 AM
To put this as succinctly as I can: A tank with 30% avoidance in ICC after the debuff is applied will have avoidance gains from future gear upgrades diminished as if he had 50%. That's what I'm trying to observe, and I think this can be defined as a form of devaluation. If you don't think it's fair to describe this as a devaluation, I'm prepared to relent in using that label, as I really don't care what you call it, so long as people are aware of how the mechanic affects future avoidance gains after the tax is applied.

It is a devaluation in that sense, I know I read it as "Dodge is losing it's value from the Icewell Radiance buff". Nice clarification.

Satorri
11-02-2009, 11:36 AM
That's not true though, mathematically and practically.

You say that, but I don't understand why. The math makes fine sense to me, what did I miss?

Edgewalker
11-02-2009, 11:46 AM
You say that, but I don't understand why. The math makes fine sense to me, what did I miss?

Because going from 51% dodge from 50% dodge is more valuable than going from 10% dodge to 11% dodge. And now, with the change, going from 11% dodge from 10% dodge will be much more difficult than before.

(Disclaimer, I don't think the decrease in RS will be much of a factor in the long run, especially with faster boss swing speeds)

Nephelai
11-02-2009, 11:56 AM
His math wasn't related to the fact that avoiding an extra 1/50 previously unavoided attacks is more significant to overall damamge avoidance then picking up an extra 1/70 previously unavoided attacks, but rather to the fact that increasing RS odds increases relative threat more when your rs odds are lower, which is an inverse relationship to the actual avoidance odds you are talking about. His post does assume an identical swing timer, and I like you am hoping that the ICC bosses swing faster but softer as part of the whole smoothing out damage output thing.

Satorri
11-02-2009, 01:50 PM
Aye, for survival purposes going from 50%=>51% dodge is a bigger step than 30%=>31%, but in terms of RS proc'ing, it's the other way around.

Adding that 1% now at 30% will be as easy as it was adding it at 50% (because it is actually adding it at 50% blah blah).

Reev
11-02-2009, 02:02 PM
This does not devalue dodge. If anything, it should increase the value of dodge comparatively to what it is now, depending on how boss swings work.

Now, because of high avoidance totals, tanks get hit really really hard, so that 2 unavoided attacks in a row are a death threat. As we will now be avoiding less, the individual hits should be smaller. So instead of only being able to take 2 hits before dying, it should be 3, or maybe even 4 if we're lucky.

If you have 50% avoidance and it takes 2 swings to kill you, there's a 25% chance of that happening. If you up your avoidance 5% to 55%, the chances of taking those 2 swings in a row is 20.25%. (correct me if my probability math sucks, btw). Raising your avoidance by 5% reduces the chance of the worst case scenario from 25% to 20.25%, or a 19% reduction.

If we reduce avoidance 20%, however, and make it so it takes 4 swings to kill a tank, at 30% avoidance, there's a 24.01% chance to take all 4 hits. Upping your avoidance 5% to 35% means you have a 17.85% chance to be hit. Reducing your chance to be hit in this scenario reduces the chances of the worst case scenario from 24.01% to 17.85%, or a 25.7% reduction.

So as we need more hits to die, we also gain more survivability out of avoidance. It doesn't necessarily trump Stamina, but it can. Stamina is important in "plateaus." It's important in the sense that if it allows you to take another hit, it's amazing. If getting more stam doesn't let you take another hit, then avoidance will probably help you survive more in a scenario where you can take 3 or 4 hits before dying.

jere
11-02-2009, 02:03 PM
If I read your last paragraph correctly, I agree with it, however this is the part I was disagreeing with:



when you say "If you are getting .6% dodge for every 1% you add now, you will still get 0.6% dodge for every 1% after Icecrown Radiance," you are correct in the sense that you will still get that raw rate of return both outside and inside the instance. but you are getting it at a lower avoidance bracket. A person outside of ICC with 30% avoidance will get more avoidance per point of parry/dodge rating than a person with 30% avoidance in ICC, because that person has to walk in with 50%, meaning any upgrades they get will give a reduced benefit than they would otherwise. This is because these future gains from gear are being diminished at the 50% DR rate, not the 30% DR rate.


This is the incorrect part. The per-point gains do not change. Your starting point changes. You get the same avoidance per point of parry/dodge rating regardless of IC radiance. I believe I understand where you are trying to get at, but I think the above statement is very misleading and doesn't say what you mean it to say. Also, you were never in the 50% DR bracket. DR is not a function of total avoidance in reality. I know we pass around the crossover function fairly freely that way, but if you look at the underlying math, DR is only a function of DR'able avoidance, not total avoidance.

Vanthus
11-02-2009, 10:44 PM
The other half of this issue isn't really known, and that is how the bosses are going to deal damage. There is no longer going to be the issue of 2 hits in a row...OMG im dead. The fight is going to no longer be dependant on avoiding half the hits, but rather reducing the mana depletion over time of healers.
Avoidance is one way to possibly solve that, if the healers are not just going to spam, which is uncertain at this time.
The other way is to increase DPS and end the fight faster. The latter is a more reliable way of solving the issue.
Again we don't know exactly how it is going to work, but it is food for thought.

Jeges
11-02-2009, 11:18 PM
Lyd, what you said was true (that it will be harder to go from X% to X+1% dodge inside ICC than outside it). But what I said, which Edgewalker restated, is also true - the value of 1% dodge (or avoidance of any sort) increases proportionally to how much you currently have. So this change is kind of a double-whammy. It will be harder to get to a certain amount of dodge, and it will be less valuable to increase avoidance from wherever you are. The former will be compensated for by bosses hitting more gently. The latter won't, and will weaken Frost and Unholy (which rely more on higher avoidance avoidance) relative to Blood. Of course, one could compensate in any number of ways (because imagination is fun... there are straightforward ways, like giving Bone Shield another bone and Improved Frost Presence another 1% mitigation per point, and novel ways: maybe roll something into Frigid Dreadplate where each melee attack that hits you increases your dodge by a stacking 1% until your next dodge, or the loss of a bone increases your dodge by 5% for 5 seconds). I have no idea if they will, or if it will be necessary.

Satorri is also right that it will actually increase the value of avoidance stats from a threat perspective, for exactly the same reasons.

Reev
11-03-2009, 06:38 AM
Lyd, what you said was true (that it will be harder to go from X% to X+1% dodge inside ICC than outside it). But what I said, which Edgewalker restated, is also true - the value of 1% dodge (or avoidance of any sort) increases proportionally to how much you currently have. So this change is kind of a double-whammy. It will be harder to get to a certain amount of dodge, and it will be less valuable to increase avoidance from wherever you are. The former will be compensated for by bosses hitting more gently. The latter won't, and will weaken Frost and Unholy (which rely more on higher avoidance avoidance) relative to Blood. Of course, one could compensate in any number of ways (because imagination is fun... there are straightforward ways, like giving Bone Shield another bone and Improved Frost Presence another 1% mitigation per point, and novel ways: maybe roll something into Frigid Dreadplate where each melee attack that hits you increases your dodge by a stacking 1% until your next dodge, or the loss of a bone increases your dodge by 5% for 5 seconds). I have no idea if they will, or if it will be necessary.

Satorri is also right that it will actually increase the value of avoidance stats from a threat perspective, for exactly the same reasons.


Jeges, look up at my previous post, and I explain how bosses hitting more gently actually compensates for it being "less valuable to increase avoidance from where you are." Normally the less avoidance you currently have, the less valuable 1% more is. That still holds true, but the more hits in takes to kill a tank, the more valuable avoidance becomes as well.

lyd
11-03-2009, 07:17 AM
Jeges, look up at my previous post, and I explain how bosses hitting more gently actually compensates for it being "less valuable to increase avoidance from where you are." Normally the less avoidance you currently have, the less valuable 1% more is. That still holds true, but the more hits in takes to kill a tank, the more valuable avoidance becomes as well.

right, that's part of why it has zero effect on overall survivability, assuming boss damage is balanced correctly in lieu of the ICC avoidance tax. the only point I was trying to make, which I hope has become apparent, is that avoidance gains from upgrades obtained in ICC will be diminished at an artificially inflated rate relative to your post-debuff avoidance score. this is entirely a question of perspective. Jere is also correct that if you gain .6% dodge from your next 1% worth of dodge rating now, the same will be true the day you enter the instance. it is devalued in the former sense, but not in the latter sense.

one can also look at it this way: if they left avoidance alone, but simply increased boss swing speed while decreasing the damage they dealt per hit, the value of avoidance would go up. the faster, smaller hits make avoidance more valuable from a throughput perspective. But they are not trying to make avoidance better or more effective. In fact, as it stands, it's too good. What they are trying to do is make bosses hit less hard without reducing overall dps on the tank. in order to do that without simply giving all boss's super-fast swing speeds, they actually have to lower your total avoidance, in this case, decreasing it by 20%. By doing so, they can concurrently reduce boss damage-per-hit, both through a small static reduction, and by, assumedly, a small increase in swing speeds in some cases.

so, from this perspective, you have a concurrent increase in the value of your *remaining* avoidance after the tax. you have 20% less avoidance, but you're taking faster, smaller hits, which increases the value of your remaining avoidance. the 20% reduction pushes down, and the reduction in damage-per-hit and assumed increase in swing speeds pushes back up. this is why there's zero effect on survival.

(there might be a small net increase, in fact, due the reduction in spike damage)

Reev
11-03-2009, 07:36 AM
Right. After Icewell Radiance, a 1% increase in avoidance is worth less in absolute terms. Going from 30-31% avoidance is a much smaller improvement than going from 50-51%. But in terms of survivability, in a world where bosses connect more often for less damage, a 1% increase in avoidance actually nets you significantly more chance to survive than going from 50-51% does without Icewell Radiance.

Jeges
11-03-2009, 08:17 AM
Reev, lyd, you're talking about avoidance as a way of preventing deadly spikes. It can do this - say there's a situation where a boss does a couple nasty unavoidable things, and if they happen at about the same time, and the melee swings on either side of them also connect, you're dead. Say also that this unfortunate convergence of damage happens about once per fight. At 50% avoidance, you've got a 75% chance of surviving. At 70% avoidance, you've got a 91% chance of surviving.

From what I've read, a lot of people who post on tank boards tend to undervalue this kind of survival assistance. There's a mentality that the only kind of survival enhancement is the one you can count on 100%. This is silly, because in real fights there are a lot of different reasons a tank can die, not all of which are the absolute worst-case happening. I agree with y'all that there's value in avoidance here.

Now, Ghostcrawler has said that they won't be speeding up boss swing timers, they'll just be reducing (or maybe failing to increase?) the damage when they connect. Reev, it's true that avoidance is better at helping to survive a deadly series of events when that series involves four melee swings than when it involves two. That's just multiplying probabilities. However, people don't generally worry about "oh my gosh, if I get hit four times in a row, I'm going to die!" We have healers. If they can't throw a heal or two on us during the six seconds that it would take for that to happen, chances are something else has gone wrong. So while this change increases avoidance's ability to prevent deadly sequences of unavoided hits, it also extends those sequences out far enough in time that they shouldn't really be a problem anyway.

It looks like the developers are trying to make avoidance more exclusively a throughput stat, rather than a "hope that it saves your life when the poop hits the fan" stat. Decreasing avoidance along with boss damage accomplishes this. As a throughput stat, ICC radiance nerfs avoidance more the more avoidance you have.

They have said that there will still be big unavoidable spikes, so there will still probably be situations where things get very hairy very quickly. In these cases, as now, avoidance will still have a chance to save you - just less of one, because you'll have less of it.

There are some related questions here. Will overall survivability go down? (not if they tune the fights right) Will we avoid less damage in ICC? (yes) Will avoidance prevent crazy spike-induced tank death less often? (almost certainly) Will it be harder to obtain a given level of avoidance? (yes) Will the marginal value of more avoidance be lower? (yes) Will different specs be affected to a different degree? (probably, unless they change other things) Most importantly, will we all still be able to tank? (unless Blizzard really screws up, yes!)

Reev
11-03-2009, 08:26 AM
That sounds about right Jeges. The only scenario I can think of where 4 hits in a row is really a tank threat on its own without a hard hitting instant thrown in, is where the healers are unable to heal during that time period, or healing effectiveness is reduced, or the boss is dual wielding. For example, on heroic Gormok, when a snobold lands on a healer and silences them for a time, or really any encounter where the healers are required to move a lot or where half the healers have to peel off to heal up the raid. In these scenarios, I think that even the 6 second time period it takes for 4 hits to land can be a dangerous time period, and avoidance plays a large role in letting us get through that.

I'm not saying avoidance > stam, by the way, to head off people who might attack my thought with that. Just that I think it will have increased significance in ICC.

Edgewalker
11-03-2009, 09:16 AM
Adding that 1% now at 30% will be as easy as it was adding it at 50% (because it is actually adding it at 50% blah blah).

You misunderstand me. It will be as hard to add that 1% as it is to add 1% to 50%, it's not as much of an overall buff as it should be.
Man this gets hard to articulate. Stupid Icewell Radiance instead of just retooling boss damage values and avoidance values :(

Satorri
11-03-2009, 10:31 AM
Heh, I think we just said the same thing. You just said "as hard" and I said "as easy." :)

Edgewalker
11-03-2009, 10:39 AM
Heh, I think we just said the same thing. You just said "as hard" and I said "as easy." :)

Yea.
My glass doesn't know if it is half full or half empty yet.

Pwnanapuddin
11-03-2009, 11:11 AM
Sato, I run with a few people who like to glaze over their omen meters. I know for a fact at least our GL Frostfire mage will pull threat if I do not keep an extremely tight threat rotation, but part of why I am tanking in those instances is because I can run higher threat than our war's and druids, and im on par with our pally. So 9% would effect me.

Pwnanapuddin
11-03-2009, 11:17 AM
I have also already started tanking with the +200 str sigil instead of the 200 dodge sigil. It does help a lot with threat. Obliterate/HB/FS crits rain down =-D

Stryker
11-03-2009, 05:45 PM
Just noticed this over on MMO-Champion, in the latest PTR Notes.

* Rune Strike: Threat generated by this ability increased by approximately 17%.

Blasterion
11-03-2009, 09:37 PM
Just noticed this over on MMO-Champion, in the latest PTR Notes.

* Rune Strike: Threat generated by this ability increased by approximately 17%.
That's really nice =) now if I tank with the Strength Sigil will it theoretically be even greater threat?

Stryker
11-03-2009, 10:28 PM
At this stage I really dunno, who knows what Blizz has in store.

Personally i'm going to stick with the dodge Sigil.

Pwnanapuddin
11-03-2009, 10:37 PM
I never put anything out of possibility. Perhaps in ICC the dodge will be nice because it will help us keep about 10% dodge.